2020 Hurricane Season

[Mike S]

There is another area already in the Gulf that popped up this morning they are looking at.

 

[JayF]

The tropics look like a mess. 2020 just continues to be a mess. Here we go!

 

[Kory]

This is about as favorable of a background state I’ve seen the Atlantic in.

 

[KoD]

Looking pretty active today too, including the organization of a potential depression off the east FL coast heading westward into the GOM.

 

[Kory]

Looking pretty active today too, including the organization of a potential depression off the east FL coast heading westward into the GOM.

Yep, 96L looks very healthy in the Bahamas. Surface Obs indicate a broad LLC. SHIPs intensity gets this up to a category 1 before landfalling on the central Gulf Coast. Might seem bullish but the upper level conditions are really good ahead of this thing. I think we might have some surprises.

 

[warneagle]

And there's already another wave coming off of Africa behind 95L. It's like a Cape Verde assembly line.

 

[Kory]

This might get Sally before 95L does.

 

[WesL]

The curse of 2020 continues.... added this map to show potential areas of sustained development potential (made that up myself)

 

[Taylor Campbell]

If 96L becomes Sally before 95L then we may have a major Teddy coming for us later.

 

[Kory]

Looks like we have a tropical depression or storm East of Florida.

Someone get the thread going.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Looks like we have a tropical depression or storm East of Florida.

Someone get the thread going.

Although unlikely given it being elongated, I would at least have some worry about rapid intensification. We saw what happened with Laura in such a short amount of time and this system will be moving over the area of the Gulf that is even warmer than the area Laura moved over.

 

[Kory]

Although unlikely given it being elongated, I would at least have some worry about rapid intensification. We saw what happened with Laura in such a short amount of time and this system will be moving over the area of the Gulf that is even warmer than the area Laura moved over.

Some models are indicating rapid intensification before landfall in LA/MS region.

 

[Kory]

I’m definitely alerting my family in Louisiana to start prepping for a hurricane. Model trends as well as observational trends are showing a more southerly track meaning more time over water with a center relocation.

 

[warneagle]

Even if it’s not a hurricane, this one looks like it could be a major flooding risk.

 

[warneagle]

I’m definitely alerting my family in Louisiana to start prepping for a hurricane. Model trends as well as observational trends are showing a more southerly track meaning more time over water with a center relocation.

Looks like the NHC agrees with you.

 

[warneagle]

Teddy and Vicky have both been named. We’re going to end up using the Cyrillic alphabet or something by November.

 

[bjdeming]

As Dave Barry wrote at the time, they started naming them after fraternities/sororities when regular names ran out in 2005.

And as a side note, looks like Paulette had better put up a "no smoking" sign.



NWS Portland tweeted a few days ago that smoke (lots more than shown in this model of a different situation) got wrapped up in the remnants of TS Genevieve, but they couldn't find any effects it might have had and they called for more research.

 

[akt1985]

Although most models take Teddy out to sea, there are still a few that bring it to New England and the Canadian Maratimes.

 

[bjdeming]

 

[Kory]

Although most models take Teddy out to sea, there are still a few that bring it to New England and the Canadian Maratimes.

I think Teddy has about as close to zero of a chance of affecting the US as you can get. Now, the storm that might develop in the Western Gulf, that’s a different story.