2020 Hurricane Season (2 Viewers)

How active do you think the 2020 Hurricane Season will be.

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    Votes: 7 87.5%

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    8

warneagle

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Gonzalo is now forecast to be a hurricane by tomorrow morning. Not surprising given those absurd SSTs.
 

warneagle

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We have Hanna, which is the earliest 8th named storm on record, beating Harvey (not that Harvey), which formed on 3 August 2005.
 

Kory

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The first big long tracker looks poised to develop with the wave currently emerging off Africa. Favorable CCKW that enhanced Douglas into a major cane in the Pacific is now pushing into the Atlantic basin enhancing Gonzalo, Hanna, and what will likely become future Isaias...

This looks like it has the potential to become a threat to the U.S. American global guidance doesn't develop it...European guidance does.



 

warneagle

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Looks like Hanna will be able to reach minimal hurricane status briefly before it makes landfall.
 

Tyler Penland

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MJO heading into phase 4-7 over the next couple weeks. Models not particularly bullish on development for that time period, no real surprise.
 

Kory

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Background state overwhelmingly favors the Atlantic...I'm not sure intraseasonal variability will matter much now that we're headed into the climatologically most favorable period on top of that.

 

Tyler Penland

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Background state overwhelmingly favors the Atlantic...I'm not sure intraseasonal variability will matter much now that we're headed into the climatologically most favorable period on top of that.

Yeah it's gonna be active regardless just thought the potential mjo swing deserved a mention. The euro could certainly be correct with the COD forecast. I'm far from versed in large scale tropical stuff just know there's a known coorelation between the mjo and tc development.

Long range ensembles showing below average mslp for most of the MDR in the 10-14 day range.

Still a long 2-3 months to go.



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