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2020 Hurricane Season (8 Viewers)

How active do you think the 2020 Hurricane Season will be.

  • Below Average Year

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Average Year

    Votes: 1 12.5%
  • Above Average Year

    Votes: 7 87.5%

  • Total voters
    8

warneagle

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Gonzalo is now forecast to be a hurricane by tomorrow morning. Not surprising given those absurd SSTs.
 

warneagle

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We have Hanna, which is the earliest 8th named storm on record, beating Harvey (not that Harvey), which formed on 3 August 2005.
 

Kory

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The first big long tracker looks poised to develop with the wave currently emerging off Africa. Favorable CCKW that enhanced Douglas into a major cane in the Pacific is now pushing into the Atlantic basin enhancing Gonzalo, Hanna, and what will likely become future Isaias...

This looks like it has the potential to become a threat to the U.S. American global guidance doesn't develop it...European guidance does.



 

warneagle

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Looks like Hanna will be able to reach minimal hurricane status briefly before it makes landfall.
 

Tyler Penland

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MJO heading into phase 4-7 over the next couple weeks. Models not particularly bullish on development for that time period, no real surprise.
 

Kory

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Background state overwhelmingly favors the Atlantic...I'm not sure intraseasonal variability will matter much now that we're headed into the climatologically most favorable period on top of that.

 

Tyler Penland

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Background state overwhelmingly favors the Atlantic...I'm not sure intraseasonal variability will matter much now that we're headed into the climatologically most favorable period on top of that.

Yeah it's gonna be active regardless just thought the potential mjo swing deserved a mention. The euro could certainly be correct with the COD forecast. I'm far from versed in large scale tropical stuff just know there's a known coorelation between the mjo and tc development.

Long range ensembles showing below average mslp for most of the MDR in the 10-14 day range.

Still a long 2-3 months to go.



Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Kory

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So CSU released their updated outlook for the rest of the season. It would go down as the second most active season ever if it comes to fruition. And given how we’ve had 9 storms and 2 hurricanes already (both landfalled in the US), I continue to get bad vibes from what we are going to see over the next 6-8 weeks.

Why do it feel this way? Check out the forecasted 500mb pattern for week 2with analogs:


Notice the dates? The infamous 2005 is top but is also down the list as well. 2002 is another year that was primarily focused on the Gulf Coast. 1995...the list goes on.

Now, let’s check the intraseasonal state. We know the background state favors the Atlantic. Standing wave over over Africa/Indian Ocean leads to large scale sinking over most of the Pacific. It also churns out the African Easterly Waves that become long trackers.

1596723703315.png

The blue/green large centered over 60E is the standing wave that will be churning out tropical waves. The red/orange over the Pacific centered on 180-120W is the sinking branch leading to stability over the Pacific (there will be some spurts of activity). And the green splotches over the Atlantic centered on 60W are the intermittent CCKW’s (convectively coupled Kelvin waves) that will aid in enhancing development over the Atlantic. Notice how it persists through most of the core of hurricane season? Yeah, combine that with the pattern we’ve had and what’s forecasted...this has the potential to be very, very ugly. But, we won’t know that til it is all over.
 

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