2020 Hurricane Season

[WesL]

Several experts calling this another busy season. Figured it is a good time to start talking about it. Dan Kottlowiski at AccuWeather has sent out his prediction for the year...

In their forecast , a combination of above average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Atlantic and the lack of El Nino conditions is signaling towards an above-average hurricane season. Water temperatures have already hit 80° for portions of the Gulf and the Caribbean during the month of March.
Their predictions are for 14 to 18 named storms 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. Forecasters are predicting 2 - 4 impacts to the United States this year.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/705233

Tropical storms: 14-18 (normal 12)
Hurricanes: 7-9 (normal 6)
Major hurricanes: 3-4 (normal 2)

In case you are wondering we are recycling the 2014 list of names this year...

1. Arthur
2. Bertha
3. Cristobal
4. Dolly
5. Edouard
6. Fay
7. Gonzalo
8. Hanna
9. Isaias
10. Josephine
11. Kyle
12. Laura
13. Marco
14. Nana
15. Omar
16. Paulette
17. Rene
18. Sally
19. Teddy
20. Vicky
21. Wilfred

 

[Kory]

Yep, with an incoming Nina, I suspect we'll be above average...we've had an incredible stretch since 2017 that should continue. I dread to think what a hurricane would do with the current COVID-19 situation.

 

[Kory]

 

[Kory]

I'm seeing a lot of very active to hyperactive seasons thrown out as analogs...most notably 2005.

Oh boy.

 

[Equus]

Tropical depression trying to form in the East Pacific (80%, short window of time left though) which would be the first April tropical cyclone on record there if it happens.

 

[bjdeming]

Just saw this -- look at the ITCZ moisture wrappjng into the TD!

 

[South AL Wx]

 

[Brice]

Heavy rain is supposed to be coming this weekend as a front sags south where subtropical development could happen and bring beneficial rain to south Florida and the areas under red flag warnings for wildfires. The urban areas might have trouble with some flash flooding but south Florida, will deeply appreciate the rain.

 

[Equus]

We've had preseason development the last five years (a record) so would certainly be interesting to extend that streak further.

 

[South AL Wx]

Looks like the streak of preseason development could continue. Special TWO:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[Lori]

Looks like the streak of preseason development could continue. Special TWO:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

View attachment 3401

Why not have a start to an early hurricane season in 2020??? Along with the other 10 Plagues of Egypt!

 

[Equus]

Definitely looking like Arthur is incoming, 10/70 last I checked with strong model support, though looks to be mostly out to sea. Guess we get to extend that five year preseason streak now... If Arthur comes from this means every single 'A' storm on the current six year name cycle happened before June 1st.

 

[Brice]

It 10/80 of forming into some type of sub or tropical storm, 10/70 in the next 3 days.
It's

 

[Equus]

Very likely to have a classified system in a few hours given trends

 

[MattW]

Will it be confidential, secret, or top secret?

 

[warneagle]

Meanwhile there's a category 5 cyclone in the northern Indian Ocean.

 

[MattW]

GFS has been consistent in some southern Gulf development the end of the first week of June. Verbatim, the 06z run of 5/26 would have a small system develop off the Yucatan mid-week, then go north with a landfall at New Orleans the next Tuesday. The runs I've seen of course vary with landfall, but it's been consistently the northern Gulf.

 

[Mike S]

NHC keeping an eye on a disturbance waaaay out there

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Corrected website for the High Seas Forecast

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.

1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and
Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday,
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

[bjdeming]

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, some amazing video of flooding in El Salvador from Tropical Storm Amanda.

 

[akt1985]

We now have Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche.