The deep tropics globally are struggling to produce anything. Current standing wave over Africa/Indian Ocean has been sending some pretty robust waves out (that one you mentioned is one that develops and gets going....Euro has a potent wave in the long-range approaching the Bahamas). While favorable background state favors the Atlantic, we are in peak SAL season and that has kept a lid on the only basin that is currently favored.So does anyone see anything out there? The best I can see, the 7/15/20 12z GFS has a fantasy disorganized mess around 354 hours going through the Bahamas then into Miami.
It certainly is being only July 21st. I’m interested to see what happens with the Gulf of Mexico feature. Currently the shear is low in the gulf and fairly moist is the air in the Gulf. Combine this with upper 80s SST and this may potentially pull a surprise.Wow at that shear map. That’s very low over a very wide area.
Yeah I have bad vibes about this season. Maybe it’s just a feeling in the air.Breaking a record that was set in 2005 seems like an ominous sign, even if the storms we've had so far this year haven't been comparable to the early storms in 2005.