2020 Hurricane Season

[majorhurricane1703]

We need to keep an eye out in the western Caribbean and Gulf for tropical development between June 17th and the 22nd. I could see something spinning up then.

 

[warneagle]

TD4 is officially Dolly now. It's the third-earliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic, after Danielle in 2016 and Debby in 2012.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

The Euro is picking up on a system forming off the Carolina coast and strengthening near hurricane status around the 9th and 10th. This should be an interesting week.

 

[Mike S]

We now have Tropical Storm Edouard in the Atlantic and headed out to sea. Should be post-tropical by this time tomorrow.

 

[WesL]

Can be we get some more of the Saharan dust please...

 

[warneagle]

We sure are burning through a lot of names on wimpy early-season fish storms this year.

 

[akt1985]

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall on the New Jersey coast this afternoon. Fay was no Sandy, Irene or Gloria but rare to have a named storm this far north.

 

[MattW]

So does anyone see anything out there? The best I can see, the 7/15/20 12z GFS has a fantasy disorganized mess around 354 hours going through the Bahamas then into Miami.

 

[Kory]

So does anyone see anything out there? The best I can see, the 7/15/20 12z GFS has a fantasy disorganized mess around 354 hours going through the Bahamas then into Miami.

The deep tropics globally are struggling to produce anything. Current standing wave over Africa/Indian Ocean has been sending some pretty robust waves out (that one you mentioned is one that develops and gets going....Euro has a potent wave in the long-range approaching the Bahamas). While favorable background state favors the Atlantic, we are in peak SAL season and that has kept a lid on the only basin that is currently favored.

But boy, the subtropics have been developing every little spin in the Atlantic...only storm that wasn't of subtropical origin was Cristobal.

 

[warneagle]

Looks like things are picking back up a bit, even if this one doesn't have great long-term prospects.

 

[Kory]

SHIPS get this to hurricane strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. Shear is very light ahead of it until then, but lots of dry air. With no mechanism to advect that dry air into the circulation, it will likely have minimal effect until the Caribbean. This one might have some surprises...given the ASCAT already shows a closed circulation and likely a tropical depression.

 

[warneagle]

Gives me a bit of concern that we're getting development that far east before the end of July. Might be in for a character-building season.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow at that shear map. That’s very low over a very wide area.

 

[warneagle]

99L will be upgraded to TD 7 at the 5 pm update

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Wow at that shear map. That’s very low over a very wide area.

It certainly is being only July 21st. I’m interested to see what happens with the Gulf of Mexico feature. Currently the shear is low in the gulf and fairly moist is the air in the Gulf. Combine this with upper 80s SST and this may potentially pull a surprise.

 

[Kory]

And we have Gonzalo...the earliest “G” named storm beating out Gert in the infamous 2005 season. Tight core that is ramping up. Don’t be surprised if we have a July MDR hurricane.

 

[warneagle]

Breaking a record that was set in 2005 seems like an ominous sign, even if the storms we've had so far this year haven't been comparable to the early storms in 2005.

 

[Kory]

Breaking a record that was set in 2005 seems like an ominous sign, even if the storms we've had so far this year haven't been comparable to the early storms in 2005.

Yeah I have bad vibes about this season. Maybe it’s just a feeling in the air.

Last time we had Gonzalo in the name rotation was 2014 which was also the last non-active year. That formed on October 22nd. We’re WAY ahead.

 

[warneagle]

Or a feeling in the water?

 

[warneagle]

91L is starting to get its act together as well.