2020 Hurricane Season

[Kory]

Keep a close eye on the Central Atlantic wave that is east of the Leeward Islands. As the favorable branch of the MJO shifts into the Western Hemisphere, specifically the Atlantic, conditions will gradually become more conducive for development. Euro ensembles are going bonkers...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

That’s insane!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Pretty strong signal there for an Ivan-like track south of the GA and into the GOM, some of those members flirt with Cat. 2+ hurricane-type pressures.

 

[bjdeming]

Genevieve in the eastern Pacific about two hours ago:



Impressive view and sound of waves at nearby Cabo San Lucas in Baja California: http://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cabo-san-lucas-panoramica

For the record:

 

[akt1985]

I forget which model but one of them had 97L and 98L hitting Florida at the same time. That would be so 2020 if that verified.

 

[Kory]

Hurricane models are very bullish with both 97L and 98L showing twin hurricanes. There’s a mixed bag of solution with the globals. The UKMET/CMC with a hurricane for 97L entering the gulf. Euro/GFS with a weaker storm or none at all. Either way, if/when we see development, this isn’t recurving. There will be land impacts.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Hurricane models are very bullish with both 97L and 98L showing twin hurricanes. There’s a mixed bag of solution with the globals. The UKMET/CMC with a hurricane for 97L entering the gulf. Euro/GFS with a weaker storm or none at all. Either way, if/when we see development, this isn’t recurving. There will be land impacts.

I’m skeptical of the hurricanes forming. The enhanced MJO has entered and shear has not really dropped off all that much. I don’t know if that might be related to Genevieve at all in the Pacific. Also maybe I’m looking at it wrong on satellite, but it seems like there is a cyclonic flow of dry air northeast of the lesser Antilles. It seems like it’s barely moving north. I wonder if that explains the somewhat hostile shear near the islands.

 

[Kory]

I’m skeptical of the hurricanes forming. The enhanced MJO has entered and shear has not really dropped off all that much. I don’t know if that might be related to Genevieve at all in the Pacific. Also maybe I’m looking at it wrong on satellite, but it seems like there is a cyclonic flow of dry air northeast of the lesser Antilles. It seems like it’s barely moving north. I wonder if that explains the somewhat hostile shear near the islands.

Well, there is a several day lag time between the MJO entering the basin and subsequent favorable conditions. There is some outflow from Genevieve that is causing shear within the Gulf and Caribbean. That will be decreasing as she is weakening and moving NW. A large trough will be diving down over the Gulf that will continue the SWerly shear but that is forecasted to lift out and ridging build back in. I think that’s when 97L will hit some more favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean. The TUTT NE of the Greater Antilles and north of 98L will be lifting out northward (you can already see that) and will induce some light westerly shear on 98L which may help stack the circulation. Currently, the mid level axis is displace west of the low level wave axis. I think the biggest hang up will be land interaction with 98L more than anything...but that isn’t a deal breaker. TONS of moving parts and we are far from a consensus. Never really had one to begin with...

 

[Kory]

Oh, and I see some guidance has two simultaneous tropical storms/hurricanes. In the Gulf. That would be unprecedented in satellite era. How 2020.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Oh, and I see some guidance has two simultaneous tropical storms/hurricanes. In the Gulf. That would be unprecedented in satellite era. How 2020.

Very way to go before anything is decided, but I wonder if the the Fujiwhara effect would come it to play if the CMC model were somehow correct in their verification of twin hurricanes. Obviously a very unlikely scenario to even have twin hurricanes spontaneously in the Gulf let alone a Fujiwhara effect, but arguably more likely than a hurricane landfall in the northeast. This hurricane season I must say (like the rest of 2020) has to be one of the weirdest on record to this point with 2 tropical storms in the northeast and no major hurricane formed yet.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Well, there is a several day lag time between the MJO entering the basin and subsequent favorable conditions. There is some outflow from Genevieve that is causing shear within the Gulf and Caribbean. That will be decreasing as she is weakening and moving NW. A large trough will be diving down over the Gulf that will continue the SWerly shear but that is forecasted to lift out and ridging build back in. I think that’s when 97L will hit some more favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean. The TUTT NE of the Greater Antilles and north of 98L will be lifting out northward (you can already see that) and will induce some light westerly shear on 98L which may help stack the circulation. Currently, the mid level axis is displace west of the low level wave axis. I think the biggest hang up will be land interaction with 98L more than anything...but that isn’t a deal breaker. TONS of moving parts and we are far from a consensus. Never really had one to begin with...

That makes sense. Will be interesting to see if the European model is right this time given what’s gone on this year with it so far.

 

[akt1985]

Invest 98L is now officially a tropical depression.

 

[Bama Ravens]

00z GFS is now onboard:

 

[Kory]

And there’s TD14 in the Caribbean. Things are coming to life in the Atlantic right on cue.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Depending on how much you buy into a model making significant improvement in skills of forecasting track and intensity over the last year or so take a look at the HMON. It predicts a major hurricane over the tip of south Florida.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

I wonder if the MJO is finally starting to take some effect. There’s more blue on the shear map then we have seen in recent days. Still unfavorable in the Gulf though.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

If Laura’s not enough. The GFS is forecasting a hurricane in the next 10 day to be heading north of the islands and in the general direction of Florida. I expect a big September. Look for at least 2 more hurricane landfalls the rest of the season.

 

[WesL]

These guys appear to be on a cruise to nowhere...

 

[Mike S]

We have Paulette and Rene out there being fishy and apparently non-threadworthy , but we miiiight have a little sumthin sumthin headed into the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days moving in from the Caribbean and that orange X in Africa could mean business down the road. Not sure what's going on with that blob off the Carolinas.

 

[Kory]

I think we may see some weak/brief development of a circulation within the eastern Gulf. After all, this season wants to spin up any little cluster of thunderstorms. That will likely bring a surge of moisture to the Gulf Coast and inland SE areas, but nothing significant. Paulette should remain off the East Coast, but model trends with the ridging over the NE US and Canadian Maratimes has been trending strong inching the future track closer, but I don't suspect a US impact...Bermuda perhaps.

Now, the one that worries me, much like Laura. Future Sally with the wave emerging from Africa currently. Indications it will be slow to organize as it trucks west across the MDR in the Atlantic. Some organization will begin to take place once it reaches the Antilles. Model solutions diverge depending on the strength of the ridging behind Paulette whether it will recurve before the US (not a guarantee like Paulette) or whether it will perhaps be an impact to the US in about 10-12 days. Some Euro ensemble solutions are...ugly. With many members showing a SE Atlantic Coast hit/Florida hit/Gulf hurricane. Still a LONG ways to go.