• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

2020 Hurricane Season

How active do you think the 2020 Hurricane Season will be.

  • Below Average Year

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Average Year

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • Above Average Year

    Votes: 14 93.3%

  • Total voters
    15

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
TD4 is officially Dolly now. It's the third-earliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic, after Danielle in 2016 and Debby in 2012.
 
Messages
73
Reaction score
9
Location
United States
The Euro is picking up on a system forming off the Carolina coast and strengthening near hurricane status around the 9th and 10th. This should be an interesting week.
 

Mike S

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,991
Reaction score
1,115
Location
Meridianville, Al
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
We now have Tropical Storm Edouard in the Atlantic and headed out to sea. Should be post-tropical by this time tomorrow.
 

WesL

"Bill, I'm talkin' imminent rueage"
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Messages
3,344
Reaction score
2,614
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Can be we get some more of the Saharan dust please...

1594049010506.png
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
We sure are burning through a lot of names on wimpy early-season fish storms this year.
 

akt1985

Member
Messages
1,009
Reaction score
509
Location
Madison, Alabama
Tropical Storm Fay made landfall on the New Jersey coast this afternoon. Fay was no Sandy, Irene or Gloria but rare to have a named storm this far north.
 

MattW

Member
Messages
307
Reaction score
206
Location
Decatur, GA
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
So does anyone see anything out there? The best I can see, the 7/15/20 12z GFS has a fantasy disorganized mess around 354 hours going through the Bahamas then into Miami.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
So does anyone see anything out there? The best I can see, the 7/15/20 12z GFS has a fantasy disorganized mess around 354 hours going through the Bahamas then into Miami.
The deep tropics globally are struggling to produce anything. Current standing wave over Africa/Indian Ocean has been sending some pretty robust waves out (that one you mentioned is one that develops and gets going....Euro has a potent wave in the long-range approaching the Bahamas). While favorable background state favors the Atlantic, we are in peak SAL season and that has kept a lid on the only basin that is currently favored.

But boy, the subtropics have been developing every little spin in the Atlantic...only storm that wasn't of subtropical origin was Cristobal.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Looks like things are picking back up a bit, even if this one doesn't have great long-term prospects.

 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
SHIPS get this to hurricane strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. Shear is very light ahead of it until then, but lots of dry air. With no mechanism to advect that dry air into the circulation, it will likely have minimal effect until the Caribbean. This one might have some surprises...given the ASCAT already shows a closed circulation and likely a tropical depression.


image0.jpg
image0.jpg

image0.gif
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Gives me a bit of concern that we're getting development that far east before the end of July. Might be in for a character-building season.
 

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Wow at that shear map. That’s very low over a very wide area.
 
Messages
73
Reaction score
9
Location
United States
Wow at that shear map. That’s very low over a very wide area.

It certainly is being only July 21st. I’m interested to see what happens with the Gulf of Mexico feature. Currently the shear is low in the gulf and fairly moist is the air in the Gulf. Combine this with upper 80s SST and this may potentially pull a surprise.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
And we have Gonzalo...the earliest “G” named storm beating out Gert in the infamous 2005 season. Tight core that is ramping up. Don’t be surprised if we have a July MDR hurricane.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Breaking a record that was set in 2005 seems like an ominous sign, even if the storms we've had so far this year haven't been comparable to the early storms in 2005.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Breaking a record that was set in 2005 seems like an ominous sign, even if the storms we've had so far this year haven't been comparable to the early storms in 2005.
Yeah I have bad vibes about this season. Maybe it’s just a feeling in the air.

Last time we had Gonzalo in the name rotation was 2014 which was also the last non-active year. That formed on October 22nd. We’re WAY ahead.
 
Back
Top