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2020 Hurricane Season (1 Viewer)

How active do you think the 2020 Hurricane Season will be.

  • Below Average Year

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    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • Above Average Year

    Votes: 13 92.9%

  • Total voters
    14

JayF

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Any Bets on Hurricane Epsilon?
 
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Next signs of mischief a-brewin' on the last several runs of the GEFS and GFS...could go through Florida from the west a la Charley or Wilma, could miss to the south and batter Cuba and the Bahamas, and given the ridging setup beyond that could threaten points further north along the East Coast.
 
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We now have Tropical Storm Zeta consolidating in the Caribbean, and strong model support for another system developing in that region at the start of November.
 

JayF

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Man, that is another one heading for Louisiana. I haven't checked water temps but man if it shifts west, and goes along that path again it will be insane.
 

JS3564MiMo

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Ok, I’m officially over the sorority girl storms! Mother Nature! Come get these fools before they start drinking and tearing up the place! N


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather
 

bjdeming

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Okay, this is in the Pacific, but folks: it has gusts of 190 knots, maximum sustained winds 155 knots.


Not a typo: gusts are over 200 mph, per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.5N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.3N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.3N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 129.3E.
30OCT20. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 65 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
 

bjdeming

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ERC reported few hours ago and Supertyphoon Goni/Rolly will probably weaken a bit more before landfall per JTWC at https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220prog.txt

Still, it has an awesome presentation, and per sources quoted by https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/typhoon-goni-philippines-flash-update-1 :

Storm surge of up to 6 m can be expected in the coasts of Camarines provinces and up to 4.6 m in the coasts of Catanduanes and Quezon provinces. It is estimated that the typhoon will bring 230-300 mm of rainfall in the regions of Metro Manila, Bicol, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon.

In this part of the world, lahars are a concern, too, and they happen long after an eruption (in 2015, after Pinatubo's 1991 blast in this video ). PHIVOLCS has warnings up at three volcanoes (none of which is erupting, though the first two are restless): Taal, Mayon, and Pinatubo.

There are lahar evacuations around Mayon, too, left in place after Molave, which went on to trash parts of Vietnam. Roads were cut and villages were damaged, but lahars killed no one around this volcano during that typhoon, AFAIK.

This time around . . .?
 

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bjdeming

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PAGASA's most current advisory, in English: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2

UPDATES AS OF AROUND NOON ON tuesdat, Nov . 2:

Most up-to-date (reportedly most deaths from flooding, but some from lahars):

And


The Manila Bulletin is still catching up, but they give a few more details:

 
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warneagle

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We've got TD 29. Not gonna threaten the US but could be problematic for Central America.
 

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