2019 Hurricane Season

[Taylor Campbell]

Interesting then that NHC cites increasing wind shear in a few days as a main reason for not raising probabilities on 94L.

Yes, unfavorable wind shear is in its way before it becomes more favorable, but by that time it’s forecast to be strung out energy near the islands that gets absorbed by the next tropical wave.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There's a very significant reduction of wind shear forecast basin wide (from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic) starting this weekend, and through next week. Really anything during that period will have a shot for development.

The tropics are about to go rampant! Models are predicting multiple storms now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models show a lot of tropical systems across the globe. Several in the Atlantic, and several in the Pacific.

 

[JayF]

Invest 97L: Not going to start a thread for this one unless models start to change its course. Mostly out to sea according to the current models. Hope you all had a great weekend.

 

[Kory]

I’m thinking the current prevailing pattern will protect the U.S. for the most part. Unless we get something in the Gulf or Western Caribbean, persistent troughs on the East Coast will scoop anything away from the mainland.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m thinking the current prevailing pattern will protect the U.S. for the most part. Unless we get something in the Gulf or Western Caribbean, persistent troughs on the East Coast will scoop anything away from the mainland.

yeah. Current pattern looks extremely boring. Very hot and very dry moving forward

 

[Kory]

We have to see if there is going to be a pattern change to see if these long tracking systems will pose a threat to the U.S. Right now, model consensus recurves Jerry with an impact to Bermuda in addition to Humberto. If we can get a system to limp along into the Western/Central Caribbean, chances of the U.S. impact increase exponentially. And we are about to see a big burst of activity.

I'll take a weak system into the Central Gulf Coast with lots of rain. Most of the Southeast is slipping into worsening drought.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

We have to see if there is going to be a pattern change to see if these long tracking systems will pose a threat to the U.S. Right now, model consensus recurves Jerry with an impact to Bermuda in addition to Humberto. If we can get a system to limp along into the Western/Central Caribbean, chances of the U.S. impact increase exponentially. And we are about to see a big burst of activity.

I'll take a weak system into the Central Gulf Coast with lots of rain. Most of the Southeast is slipping into worsening drought.

im not seeing a pattern change anytime soon. Unfortunately .. October looming... that’s the driest month on average whole year ... not good... my yard bout burnt up... no sense in mowing now...

 

[WesL]

Sorta like playing Battleship out there...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

No quite future ahead for the tropics. We may very well be dealing with a US threat beginning in October.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

No quite future ahead for the tropics. We may very well be dealing with a US threat beginning in October.

overall. Ridge should be strong to protect east coast ... if. If something can develop in gulf. May see a landfall from that region

 

[majorhurricane1703]

We need to watch Karen this week. An out to sea solution is not a 100% given as of yet. While I do think this storm will eventually go out to sea, it’s also taking unorthodox path telling me it may behave in an unorthodox way. Time will tell.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

We need to watch Karen this week. An out to sea solution is not a 100% given as of yet. While I do think this storm will eventually go out to sea, it’s also taking unorthodox path telling me it may behave in an unorthodox way and shift back west. Time will tell.

 

[Kory]

We need to watch Karen this week. An out to sea solution is not a 100% given as of yet. While I do think this storm will eventually go out to sea, it’s also taking unorthodox path telling me it may behave in an unorthodox way. Time will tell.

Yeah, this one is a bit different with many moving parts. I don’t think a total out to sea solution is in the cards right now. Jerry and the new system off the coast of Africa will influence the building ridge over the eastern CONUS. Karen may become trapped beneath that like many GFS and Euro solutions show...and head west.

 

[Weatherphreak]

GFS has been showing a pretty substantial looking storm in the Caribbean at the end of the last two runs. Will be something to keep an eye on. I’d imagine water temps will be sufficient into mid October in the gulf.

 

[WesL]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[warneagle]

At least y’all will probably get some rain from it.

 

[Kory]

At least y’all will probably get some rain from it.

It’s going to be highly sheared. Doubt we get much across most of AL.

 

[warneagle]

This is definitely something to keep an eye on. Not of US relevance but certainly interesting from the perspective of weather geekery.

 

[WesL]

This is definitely something to keep an eye on. Not of US relevance but certainly interesting from the perspective of weather geekery.

Not going to lie... I have never heard of this phenomenon