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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

So at this point in time how does southern middle Tennessee look? All I am hearing is this is now basically a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all of a sudden???
 
Xenesthis said:
So at this point in time how does southern middle Tennessee look? All I am hearing is this is now basically a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency all of a sudden???
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It can't Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until it happens..... But yes this is not screaming "outbreak" on any level. It 100% still looks like a pretty hefty severe event that West TN, North MS, North AL, and Middle TN, need to watch
 
Frogge said:
It can't Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until it happens..... But yes this is not screaming "outbreak" on any level. It 100% still looks like a pretty hefty severe event that West TN, North MS, North AL, and Middle TN, need to watch
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What changed so dramatically from yesterday?
 
Xenesthis said:
What changed so dramatically from yesterday?
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Well the system wasn't fully on shore for one. When it got on shore and models all started to agree folks didn't want to accept it...... I will say that the 12/23 outbreak had about as much CAPE and shear as this setup and had the same issues of models backing off 30 hours out. That day the sun broke out in areas and the crapvection went away and we know what happened next. Its Dixie and its fall/winter... Literally anything could happen tomorrow.
 
I don't really understand why anyone would think this threat is on a downward trend? This is the very latest SPC SREF. It's gone from 30 earlier to 45 now over NW Alabama into TN. EHI 's are still averaging 2.0- 3.0 over MS/ AL/TN., Bulk shear is more than sufficient over 50-55 knots +, and SRH nearing 500 m2s2 to push EF3+ if the forecasted instability becomes reality and with a 190 MPH 300mb jet incoming, things are "not" just gonna go away.
SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif
 
Timhsv said:
I don't really understand why anyone would think this threat is on a downward trend? This is the very latest SPC SREF. It's gone from 30 earlier to 45 now over NW Alabama into TN. EHI 's are still averaging 2.0- 3.0 over MS/ AL/TN., Bulk shear is more than sufficient over 50-55 knots +, and SRH nearing 500 m2s2 to push EF3+ if the forecasted instability becomes reality and with a 190 MPH 300mb jet incoming, things are "not" just gonna go away.
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Ok this is why I asked the question... Things were not making sense as to why some were saying is was pretty much downgrading significantly. Now I know I am not crazy. Also those are pretty robust numbers and with me outside of Murfreesboro I look to be in the middle of it
 
This is not a typical fall or cool season risk
Timhsv said:
I don't really understand why anyone would think this threat is on a downward trend? This is the very latest SPC SREF. It's gone from 30 earlier to 45 now over NW Alabama into TN. EHI 's are still averaging 2.0- 3.0 over MS/ AL/TN., Bulk shear is more than sufficient over 50-55 knots +, and SRH nearing 500 m2s2 to push EF3+ if the forecasted instability becomes reality and with a 190 MPH 300mb jet incoming, things are "not" just gonna go away.
View attachment 935
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while the jet is lifting northward, sref may be keying on a bit more kink/tilt adding more spin. I hope there hasn't been a knee-jerk reaction due to the change from the disaster the euro was showing.
 
Richardjacks said:
This is not a typical fall or cool season

while the jet is lifting northward, sref may be keying on a bit more kink/tilt adding more spin. I hope there hasn't been a knee-jerk reaction due to the change from the disaster the euro was showing.
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So what’s your current thoughts on this at this point?
 
Of course I can't speak for others, but I don't think its as much to do with people believing the threat has diminished to the point to not worry about it as much as the Major outbreak that was once advertised isn't on the table. As i've said many times since this thread began, this very much has the.potential to be very bad if one of these storms happens to find you or a loved on. I certainly think we will see multiple warnings issued tomorrow evening. I most certainly dont believe this is a system you should turn your back on! Just know its southeastern weather and we will know Tuesday what had happened!
 
Hpdb301 said:
Of course I can't speak for others, but I don't think its as much to do with people believing the threat has diminished to the point to not worry about it as much as the Major outbreak that was once advertised isn't on the table. As i've said many times since this thread began, this very much has the.potential to be very bad if one of these storms happens to find you or a loved on. I certainly think we will see multiple warnings issued tomorrow evening. I most certainly dont believe this is a system you should turn your back on! Just know its southeastern weather and we will know Tuesday what had happened!
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So with the data that was just given you don’t believe that an outbreak is on the table? I don’t know I respectfully disagree. Of course we won’t know until tomorrow night and yes it only takes one to come down your street. I totally get that. My concern is if this gets downplayed and that turns out to be wrong then with this coming in at night many may not take this as serious. What I am getting at is that you and I would take it seriously either way but your normal non weather person would be like ehhh I won’t worry about it. I have heard it plenty to know
 
Richardjacks said:
This is not a typical fall or cool season risk

while the jet is lifting northward, sref may be keying on a bit more kink/tilt adding more spin. I hope there hasn't been a knee-jerk reaction due to the change from the disaster the euro was showing.
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Amen...me neither RJ
 
Xenesthis said:
So with the data that was just given you don’t believe that an outbreak is on the table? I don’t know I respectfully disagree. Of course we won’t know until tomorrow night and yes it only takes one to come down your street. I totally get that. My concern is if this gets downplayed and that turns out to be wrong then with this coming in at night many may not take this as serious. What I am getting at is that you and I would take it seriously either way but your normal non weather person would be like ehhh I won’t worry about it. I have heard it plenty to know
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I would hope the masses wouldnt need a "outbreak" to heed the caution and monitor the weather. I believe the NWS (Hun & BMX), SPC and most media outlets have used the appropriate wording. I know we are taking proper precations at work having extra personnel on standby and volunteers in to assist at the storm shelters. In my opinion a possible tornado is a possible tornado, whether it comes in the masses or just isolated.
 
Xenesthis said:
o with the data that was just given you don’t believe that an outbreak is on the table?
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Sorry i didnt give u my political answer to this, it takes 6 to 10 tornadoes caused from the same system to meet outbreak status. I think that number could be plausible, however just not as likely as it would have been if we had the parameters that were initially advertised by the Euro. And remember its not the amount of tornado warnings issued, that qualify as an outbreak but the number of confirmed touchdowns. Hence why I i keep saying "We'll know Tuesday".
 
0Z CAMs (3K NAM and HRRR) have ticked back up a little bit with sim ref and updraft helicity so I wouldn't sleep on this setup just yet. That said, not super impressed with the performance of "King" EURO lately. Used to be if it had a significant setup in the 5-7 day range you could take it to the bank while if the GFS had a setup without EURO support you would throw it out.

Not the strong confidence in a high-end tornado outbreak like I was anticipating a couple days ago, but still looks like parts of N. MS, N. AL, TN and possibly KY could be in for a rough night Monday into Tuesday.
 
00z 3km NAM soundings at 30hr near Florence. Showing some capping coming in before frontal passage its not real big, but if i'm reading it correctly its there.
 
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