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Winter Weather/Ice Storm Threat January 30 - February 3, 2023 - Ice Ice Baby

Honestly it could be a very tight line to walk on having a crippling ice storm and just a cold rain. Snow/sleet/freezing line setups are always a headache. Could be very bad could turn out good. I lean on the side of cold air at the surface being there at this point. Dense cold air should cut through under the warmer upper levels.
 
Wow, models have been struggling with the short term forecast. I’m curious if the GFS is going to get it right with the potential severe threat across Alabama on Thursday.
 
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Lol the potential for high freezing rain amounts is plain stupid it's like Memphis has a choo choo train of freezing rain moving through they're for two or three days in multiple waves.

Even with possibly freezing rain thunder.
 
00z RDPS
zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png
 
NEW.jpg

Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco,
and Austin
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
to two tenths of an inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain could begin as early as
tomorrow morning across the warning area. Icing will be possible
mainly during the late night through mid-morning hours when
temperatures will be coldest, though minor glazing of elevated
surfaces could occur by the afternoon commute tomorrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Why are the Canadians so angry?
Click to expand...
crowd protest GIF by South Park


Morning from NW Arkansas - we woke up to a light coating of ice on everything. Told that more fun will start around noon. Y'all stay safe
 
A quarter to half inch of ice possible in the Memphis area...wow.

Even here in the Great White North of southern Wisconsin, significant ice storms aren't all that common (other parts of the Midwest seem to get them on a somewhat more regular basis for some reason). The only really notable one I remember in my adult life was in the vaunted (by snow weenies on another forum, I could take it or leave it) winter of 2013-'14. As I recall it wasn't really emphasized in the forecast (no ice storm warning), but I came outside to leave for my 3 AM work shift and found my car encased in about 1/4" of solid ice. That was a fun 20 minutes of chipping and scraping.

In the years since, it seems every time we are expected to get high ice totals (models have it over us for days in advance, local NWS talks about it in the AFDs and maybe even actually does issue an ice storm warning) it underperforms. I agree that freezing rain is definitely the most difficult p-type to forecast, even more so to predict whether and how much it will actually accumulate. I recall in one recent Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency either last winter or the one before, it actually rained too hard. The water was actually prevented from freezing on surfaces efficiently because it kept getting dislodged by more drops hitting it. The result was a thin glaze that partially thawed and broke apart easily.
 
The raw text soundings in Memphis from the GFS support freezing rain. Looks as there will be two rounds. Tonight into the morning tomorrow and then again tomorrow afternoon. Each round with around .20 of ice accretion.
 
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I have lived in the Birmingham region all but two years since 1988. I have never experienced a significant freezing rain event here, although we were living in North Carolina during the 1996 winter storm that did bring ice to the area. At my location north of the city, we had heavy sleet accumulation in January of 2011, but freezing rain events have never amounted to more than minor glazing. Freezing rain events seem more common to our west and northwest, presumably due to typical storm tracks, and to our east due to cold air wedging on the Piedmont.
 
Check this out. Tyler, Texas is under a Winter Storm Warning and Flood Watch. First they'll freeze then they'll float. LOL!
Screenshot 2023-01-30 144651.png
 
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