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Winter Weather/Ice Storm Threat January 30 - February 3, 2023 - Ice Ice Baby

Lake Martin EF4

Lake Martin EF4

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Messages
708
Location
Oakland, Tennessee
ashtonlemleywx said:
sfctd-imp.conus.png


GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture.

Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.
Click to expand...
 
Not sure if this will end up as a severe threat or a ice threat. If I'm correct on the time frame.

Maybe a ice after the severe who knows.
 
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This, is the similar solution the euro shows for that time frame. Until better operational support and ensemble support winter weather and severe are possible. wintry_setup_south.jpg
 
The euros temp and preicp at the same time. Depends how deep that cold air is. Could spell trouble for icing. Potential for two distinct possibilities in the future severe and winter weather (ice). us_model-en_modez_2023012512_186_5_241.pngus_model-en_modez_2023012512_186_5_210.png
 
The 6z and 12z GFS from yesterday showed potential for an ice event though it hasn't been consistent.
gfs-deterministic-alms-frzr_total-5857600 (1).pnggfs-deterministic-alms-frzr_total-5857600.png
 
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On the other hand though, the Canadian has been pretty consistent the last 4 runs with a significant ice storm potential.
gem-all-alms-frzr_total-5555200.pnggem-all-alms-frzr_total-5512000.pnggem-all-alms-frzr_total-5468800.pnggem-all-alms-frzr_total-5425600 (1).png
 
It really depends on the evolution of that Jetstream and how deep the cold air is from the high pressure system. It's a nasty ice event if the pattern pans out
 
Just a possibility that needs to be put on a board of possibilities; a few analogs would be good to look into, at this point. But usually with a huge high-pressure with blistering cold and a subtropical jet over the south east. Leads to overlapping and colder air at the surface with warmer air above.

Generally at this point a blistering cold high pressure needs to cautious with many cases with the dense cold air pushing in quicker or more profoundly. Kinda has to do with the role of boundaries and atmosphere.
 
The 1998 Ice Storm is the one I have bad memories from. Slipped on ice and fractured my wrist on my writing hand. Had multiple trees fall on my sister's house next door and my dad's house didn't have power for almost 3 weeks. Luckily he had gas heaters installed on all of the walls of his house back then.
 
It's highly unlikely that in the next week or week and half or so that somebody in the deep south doesn't get some form of wintry precip, seems unlikely with the possibility of atleast two short waves making there way through possibly through the Gulf as a closed low or just as a broad shortwave with increased precip. We ACTUALLY have the cold air for a little while at the front door to make it happen this go round; we are right around peak timing for a winter precip with late January/ early February being the most likely time for snow in the deep south historically.
 
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