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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

KevinH said:
What makes you say that?
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Slp seems to be getting squashed deep further south on these runs , going hinder the warm sector , not going be as large open … like see better instability … going say areas down toward gulf still have shot at a respectable eevebt suppose … let’s see how the 12z suits are today .
 
CIPS analog maps for D7 and D8, respectively.
1677251255235.png1677251270881.png
Edit: Also, probability map of 1+ and 5+ SVR reports from 3/1 to 3/4, respectively.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.png
1677251379177.png
 
What the heck is driving these analogs a more robust instability pool ahead of the high shear for Monday?

Wrong thread. This comment was intended for Monday lol
 
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Honestly it's been quite a while 12 years since such a deep low traveled a identical path? Correct me if I'm wrong the last time a deep low traveled near that path and brought severe weather for Alabama was April 27th 2011 I think. And again I will say this every time lol, this will not be as bad as that day. But it's a very rare occurrence to have a 980s mb low traverse the favorable place for tornado events in Alabama.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
What're you talking about? For the Tennessee area ? It actually set it up for a very volatile day for atleast Alabama in the 12z may miss out on the Tennessee area some View attachment 18131
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Yeah, that’s a nasty look and continues to uptick the severe potential for Thursday.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Yeah, that’s a nasty look and continues to uptick the severe potential for Thursday.
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Ludicrous height falls with a favorable broad trough.
Although not as broad as it was a day ago I don't think , and it's semi neutral semi negative tilt trough; not sure that it'll be a major hindrance though gfs_z500a_us_30 (1).png
 
12Z GFS with robust SCP values over E AL/W GA. Has been keeping higher values in the NE 1/3rd of AL and parts of W GA for a while now.
1677258601440.png
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS also seems to be getting more progressive with the system. Front now races through most of AL before peak heating 3/3. However in the past it's been known to do this and then slow the system down again inside of 72 hours or so.
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Exactly , think this a trend that needs be watched . Going be soon the Florida panhandle se. Georgia and south Alabama towards gulf going be the trouble spot
 
NorthGaWeather said:
To be fair, the 12z GFS moved north compared to the 00z. The 12z GEFS is also north with most members in the Missouri Bootheel, but there is a lot of spread. The fun of D7/8 trends.
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The GEFS is on board with that path? Oof haven't checked the ensembles recently. How much you wanna bet a SPC outline comes out by tommorow morning if the rest of the runs are very similar to the Memphis /bootheel area?
 
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