I'll make them from now on then, mine usually bust lol.You realize of course, if this ends up being a major outbreak Kevin can never make another severe thread.
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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
- Thread starter KevinH
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tennessee storm chaser
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They won’t. Still to much uncertainty
Seems like a decent EML may be present just from the euro sounding I pulled up over central Mississippi ahead of the gist of action for that region. 
ARCC
Member
Very rare to have this much agreement on such a strong system
Pretty good agreement on a good look at 500mb as well.
JPWX
Member
What I would like to see moving forward is if we can reach that 2500-3000 range in instability, I'll definetly jump on board if we see some extreme instability forecasts when we get closer, no reason why we shouldn't see higher instability values unless the warm sector is ushered in on short notice.
I know it's not necessary to have those values but if your looking for a major event those values would be helpful. The two 2021 march events did not have those higher instability values (but they also did not have such a extreme LLJ extended into the gulf along with the very deep surface pressure compared to the forecast euro. *1002mb & 998* compared to the 982 I think...), but given those days were remarkable events without them. But if your looking for a more high end event, widespread 2500-3000j of instability would need to be present I would think
I know it's not necessary to have those values but if your looking for a major event those values would be helpful. The two 2021 march events did not have those higher instability values (but they also did not have such a extreme LLJ extended into the gulf along with the very deep surface pressure compared to the forecast euro. *1002mb & 998* compared to the 982 I think...), but given those days were remarkable events without them. But if your looking for a more high end event, widespread 2500-3000j of instability would need to be present I would think
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ARCC
Member
Maybe I’m wrong, but Im pretty sure the CAMs all showed 2000+ sbcape on both 2021 systems the night before. I can’t remember if it verified though.
Looking at the upper air sounding* the March 25, 2021 had only around 900 sbcape at 1pm from BMX which the higher instability may have migrated closer to bmx as the event moved on but just from the 1pm sounding it was rather on the low side. I can't remeber exactly on the previous one. But I think they verified lower than the actual day of totals. Not a 100% I'd need to dig some more.
Seems like portions of the event where driven by high shear, portions of the area probably could've been classified as a high shear low cape tornado outbreak.
March 25th below at 1pm
March 17th below at 1pm
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- Moderator
- #130
The UM was brutal.
What's the UM?
JPWX
Member
Okay. I stumbled upon what is probably the lowest pressure in the vicinity of the Mid-South region. On February 27th, 1902, an intense low pressure system moved through Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Illinois. The pressure at Springfield, Illinois was 28.71 (972mbar).
Lol why does the 00z GFS want death by snowstorm and tornadoes for Alabama?
JPWX
Member
GFS doesn't make sense to me with the snow potential.
JPWX
Member
Is that a 968mbar low being shown near Tuscaloosa? Probably too far south but good grief.
- Moderator
- #136
No, that is the 850mb level winds. The surface low deepens to 985mb by central MS.
Both 00z GFS and 00z support a snow storm for the south now lol
- Moderator
- #138
The warm sector side of this storm is bonafide dangerous!
- Thread starter
- #139
KevinH
Member
Don’t do that @MichelleH…You realize of course, if this ends up being a major outbreak Kevin can never make another severe thread.
LMAO
- Thread starter
- #140
KevinH
Member
Omg… people would come up behind me when I was younger and yell this at me lol They would also tell me I’m such a disease. Now I am in therapy hahahahhahahahahaha
#EmotionalDamage
