• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

200.gif
 
What I would like to see moving forward is if we can reach that 2500-3000 range in instability, I'll definetly jump on board if we see some extreme instability forecasts when we get closer, no reason why we shouldn't see higher instability values unless the warm sector is ushered in on short notice.

I know it's not necessary to have those values but if your looking for a major event those values would be helpful. The two 2021 march events did not have those higher instability values (but they also did not have such a extreme LLJ extended into the gulf along with the very deep surface pressure compared to the forecast euro. *1002mb & 998* compared to the 982 I think...), but given those days were remarkable events without them. But if your looking for a more high end event, widespread 2500-3000j of instability would need to be present I would think
 
Last edited:
UncleJuJu98 said:
What I would like to see moving forward is if we can reach that 2500-3000 range in instability, I'll definetly jump on board if we see some extreme instability forecasts when we get closer, no reason why we shouldn't see higher instability values unless the warm sector is ushered in on short notice.

I know it's not necessary to have those values but if your looking for a major event those values would be helpful. The two 2021 march events did not have those higher instability values (but they also did not have such a extreme LLJ extended into the gulf along with the very deep surface pressure compared to the forecast euro. *1002mb & 998* compared to the 982 I think...), but given those days were remarkable events without them. But if your looking for a more high end event, widespread 2500-3000j of instability would need to be present I would think
Click to expand...
Maybe I’m wrong, but Im pretty sure the CAMs all showed 2000+ sbcape on both 2021 systems the night before. I can’t remember if it verified though.
 
ARCC said:
Maybe I’m wrong, but Im pretty sure the CAMs all showed 2000+ sbcape on both 2021 systems the night before. I can’t remember if it verified though.
Click to expand...
Looking at the upper air sounding* the March 25, 2021 had only around 900 sbcape at 1pm from BMX which the higher instability may have migrated closer to bmx as the event moved on but just from the 1pm sounding it was rather on the low side. I can't remeber exactly on the previous one. But I think they verified lower than the actual day of totals. Not a 100% I'd need to dig some more.

Seems like portions of the event where driven by high shear, portions of the area probably could've been classified as a high shear low cape tornado outbreak.
March 25th below at 1pm
skew1_0325_18Z.png

March 17th below at 1pm
skewt_0317_18Z.png
 
Last edited:
Okay. I stumbled upon what is probably the lowest pressure in the vicinity of the Mid-South region. On February 27th, 1902, an intense low pressure system moved through Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Illinois. The pressure at Springfield, Illinois was 28.71 (972mbar).
 
GFS doesn't make sense to me with the snow potential.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top