Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[KevinH]

I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period.

We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good discussion lol

Dates and states in the thread title will be adjusted as needed per future SPC Outlooks.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest 12z operational has a significant positive tilt trough look

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also just for a note lol, a lot of this talk is going to be speculation moving forward until we are in a more solid range 6-7 day.

It's gunna be a fine line for too deep of a digging trough or vice versa, positive tilt trough will probably lead to less severity in general

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Also just for a note lol, a lot of this talk is going to be speculation moving forward until we are in a more solid range 6-7 day.

It's gunna be a fine line for too deep of a digging trough or vice versa, positive tilt trough will probably lead to less severity in general

Heard a positive tilted trough can lead to more
Tornadoes also …. But seems bigger severe outbreaks come during a negative titled trough .

 

[Former Member 1430]

Also just for a note lol, a lot of this talk is going to be speculation moving forward until we are in a more solid range 6-7 day.

It's gunna be a fine line for too deep of a digging trough or vice versa, positive tilt trough will probably lead to less severity in general

Beg to differ… The 1974 outbreak was a positive tilt

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Exactly. Great point

 

[Taylor Campbell]

GFS with 992mb low over north Alabama on 12z run. Tornado outbreak in the Southeast. Now to wait 3 hours for the EURO to finish is the most annoying thing about weather model watching lol.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

GFS with 992mb low over north Alabama on 12z run. Tornado outbreak in the Southeast. Now to wait 3 hours for the EURO to finish is the most annoying thing about weather model watching lol.

Ridge. Little bit stronger think. … euro
Have it more north , if euro catches on .

 

[UK_EF4]

It really depends more on trough shape and amplitude more than tilt in my opinion, and even then - tilt is a spectrum, so classing them into purely positive and negative tilts isn't a super beneficial way of looking at things to me. Typically you want large, low amplitude troughs that have strong flow and embedded shortwaves for your typical large scale, long duration discrete supercell outbreaks (at least that's what I have found). These may be slightly positively or negatively tilted, though the smaller embedded shortwaves are almost always negatively tilted.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Beg to differ… The 1974 outbreak was a positive tilt

Good point lol, but in general a positive tilt trough usually means a less significant severe threat.

 

[KevinH]

Beg to differ… The 1974 outbreak was a positive tilt

I did not know that SMH

 

[KevinH]

Echoing what others have been saying….

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Echoing what others have been saying….

Stop posting your own tweets Kevin lol *wink wink* (can't figure out how to get emojis to work on here lol)

 

[KevinH]

Stop posting your own tweets Kevin lol *wink wink* (can't figure out how to get emojis to work on here lol)

This isn’t my Twitter account lol

And I can’t figure out how to get emojis on here either but I saw one in a thread recently. It was either in the severe weather 2023 thread or the thread from late last week.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

12z Canadian with a bang.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

And the new EURO with the middle finger.

 

[UK_EF4]

Although some of these runs especially the 12z Euro, are big 'yikes', I don't think we should be getting too worried just yet. I have posted these just for fun as I thought they are pretty crazy, but it's worth remembering we are still 220 hours out, and we know after the last few events things can easily downtrend. But for now I am just keeping an eye on models and trends etc, though also worth saying model agreement is something a bit unusual for 9 days out.

 

[Timhsv]

This morning 12Z ECMWF is mouth dropping at 850mb, and with PDS soundings already at this range.

 

[Clancy]

12Z runs definitely looking pretty spooky. Still a lot of time to wait on specifics but the model agreement troubles me. Hoping this downtrends significantly in the coming days.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12Z runs definitely looking pretty spooky. Still a lot of time to wait on specifics but the model agreement troubles me. Hoping this downtrends significantly in the coming days.

Sometimes events make a name for themselves far out, not saying this will. Your almost gonna need a really good pool of instability to support the wind shear in place by the euro and gfs or the updraft will be tore apart