Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[KevinH]

“Predictability is too low” for Fri 3/3 (D8) per the SPCs D4-8 outlook this morning.


...Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8..
A cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Coast states on
Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the Rockies. Moisture
return on Tuesday is forecast to remain largely absent ahead of this
trough, suggesting the potential for severe thunderstorms will
remain low. On Wednesday, some moisture is forecast to advect
northward into the Gulf Coast states, where isolated to scattered
convection will be possible during the afternoon. However, model
solutions suggest that instability will remain weak, limiting the
severe weather potential. On Wednesday night into Thursday,
continued moisture advection should increase surface dewpoints up
into the 60s F from Georgia into the Carolinas. Although
thunderstorms will be possible near the axis of a low-level jet, the
weak instability that is currently forecast could be problematic.
From Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to
move eastward from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf
Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature
from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to Florida. Although a
severe threat may develop across parts of the region, predictability
at this range remains low.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Probably about to hit that swing back into the original euro view, lol it's gunna be a tug and pull moving forward

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Right on queue outbreak look on GFS for alabama the 06z run lol. Pushes 1500sbcape on a global lol that's pretty good.

 

[KevinH]

Right on queue outbreak look on GFS for alabama the 06z run lol. Pushes 1500sbcape on a global lol that's pretty good.

Pics? I wanna see!

 

[keithGA]

Pics? I wanna see!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Check out the jet maximum on the 500mb 130? Lol and the LLJ extended way south almost all the way into the middle of the gulf

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I do not think shear or instability will be a issue for this event, more so where and who will be effected. And if somebody's gonna get a backside snowstorm instead hahaha. I'm still keeping that in my pocket I'll take a big snow any day over severe.

 

[KevinH]

@keithGA Your screenshots somehow we’re not quoted when I hit reply, but

Good grief. If I calculate the Z time correctly, that is 4pm ET right?

How I calculate in my head:

21z = 2100, or “9pm”

I am 5 hours behind during EST, so 2100-5 = 1600

1600 = 4pm ET

During DST (which starts on March 12 BTW), the 5 is changed to a 4.

READY Tools - Time Conversion Table

www.ready.noaa.gov

 

[KevinH]

Check out the jet maximum on the 500mb 130? Lol and the LLJ extended way south almost all the way into the middle of the gulf View attachment 18123View attachment 18124

Yeah these are the areas (S and C AL) *I* need to be watching IF storms travel NE.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@keithGA Your screenshots somehow we’re not quoted when I hit reply, but

Good grief. If I calculate the Z time correctly, that is 4pm ET right?

How I calculate in my head:

21z = 2100, or “9pm”

I am 5 hours behind during EST, so 2100-5 = 1600

1600 = 4pm ET

During DST (which starts on March 12 BTW), the 5 is changed to a 4.

READY Tools - Time Conversion Table

www.ready.noaa.gov

It'll change I wouldn't focus on timing or exact threat areas.

 

[KevinH]

Probably about to hit that swing back into the original euro view, lol it's gunna be a tug and pull moving forward

Yes… I’m giving it until D3. The models have been giving this signal for a few days (I think) and they seem to be coming into somewhat better agreement. I don’t like that THIS far out. Hopefully they chill out over the next few days :/

 

[KevinH]

I do not think shear or instability will be a issue for this event, more so where and who will be effected. And if somebody's gonna get a backside snowstorm instead hahaha. I'm still keeping that in my pocket I'll take a big snow any day over severe.

The south has more experience with severe than snow but it’s a toss up. Pros and cons for both I guess (depending on who you ask lol)

 

[KevinH]

It'll change I wouldn't focus on timing or exact threat areas.

Right I was just checking my math lol

I don’t really pay TOO much attention to intensity, timing and location this far out. I will say I am more likely to do so with increased model agreement, and even then that is not a guarantee.

Nothing is EVER 100% guaranteed with the weather unless and until it occurs.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems like this system won’t be near strong as first indicated which is good thing … but I’m ready for chase

 

[KevinH]

Seems like this system won’t be near strong as first indicated which is good thing … but I’m ready for chase

What makes you say that?

 

[KevinH]

Stop posting your own tweets Kevin lol *wink wink* (can't figure out how to get emojis to work on here lol)

Found it!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like this system won’t be near strong as first indicated which is good thing … but I’m ready for chase

I wouldn't say that by a longshot, I kinda expected models to ease off on intensity of the low seems unreasonable for such a intense surface pressure from a non tropical system. But even so we are sitting at around mid 990s. less intense shear that tears up the updrafts (970s mb and low 980s) would be beneficial for stronger storms. Especially if you see a high instability pool, id say potential wise and don't quote me on this later lol. That this event could reach or be more substantial than some of the March 2021 events if it keeps up on this path lol.

 

[KevinH]

I wouldn't say that by a longshot, I kinda expected models to ease off on intensity of the low seems unreasonable for such an intense surface pressure from a non tropical system. But even so we are sitting at around mid 990s. less intense shear that tears up the updrafts (970s mb and low 980s) would be beneficial for stronger storms. Especially if you see a high instability pool, id say potential wise and don't quote me on this later lol. That this event could reach or be more substantial than some of the March 2021 events if it keeps up on this path lol.

Which March 2021 event?

Tornado outbreak of March 16–18, 2021 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Or

Tornado outbreak sequence of March 24–28, 2021 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Which March 2021 event?

Tornado outbreak of March 16–18, 2021 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Or

Tornado outbreak sequence of March 24–28, 2021 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Either one they were both rather similar , lol I may regret referencing these events later but oh well I'll take it on the chin haha

 

[mattdanielwx]

I wouldn't focus on the strength of the low. 990 mb low is still very powerful and can produce a significant outbreak of severe weather. The question is the upper-level pattern and how this storm evolves next Friday. We've seen the suppressed version in the 0z runs and the severe threat from the European a day ago. Whoever ends up south and east of that low will likely experience severe weather. We just don't have enough information to determine where and when. Just a wait and see. Either way, we can confidently say that next Friday's system could be significant whether you lean severe or maybe even wintry (which seems unlikely to me at this point).