Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[UncleJuJu98]

Still think SPC will most likely hold off till day 5-6 to be honest, at the earliest. Could be wrong but models still seem all over the shop, exact trough shape, ejection, track, timing all seem to be varying between globals and ensembles at the minute.

I think they'res enough confidence that severe weather will materialize given those factors still. Too potent of a system, unless it goes ape crap and gives us a blizzard lol. It'll also rely on similar model outputs until tomorrow morning when the 00z suite finishes.

12z euro run coming in now let's see what it says

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Guess I got to wait longer lol the euro fast model skips through the entire event. Lol bad timing with the 24 hour interval, not sure wether it's a snow setup or severe setup on the 12z. If it's snows then yeah no outline tommorow morning. Lol

 

[UK_EF4]

12z Euro a nearly non-event. Still very early for spc to start highlight any risks in my opinion.

 

[KevinH]

CIPS analog maps for D7 and D8, respectively.
View attachment 18126View attachment 18127
Edit: Also, probability map of 1+ and 5+ SVR reports from 3/1 to 3/4, respectively.

View attachment 18128

I love when people post the CIPS. Thank you.

 

[Timhsv]

12z Euro a nearly non-event. Still very too early for spc to start highlight any risks in my opinion.

Amazing. What the heck is the EC doing of late? It drives a crazy sub 970 low then backs off almost to nothing for the same time period for the last 3 or 4 days??
Just nuts. I guess it's just the atmospheric pattern were in and out of. Still way too early to gripe if you will.

 

[KevinH]

Amazing. What the heck is the EC doing of late? It drives a crazy sub 970 low then backs off almost to nothing for the same time period for the last 3 or 4 days??
Just nuts. I guess it's just the atmospheric pattern were in and out of. Still way too early to gripe if you will.

Watch the Euro change its mind again lol Typical model flip flopping lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Amazing. What the heck is the EC doing of late? It drives a crazy sub 970 low then backs off almost to nothing for the same time period for the last 3 or 4 days??
Just nuts. I guess it's just the atmospheric pattern were in and out of. Still way too early to gripe if you will.

Just couple days ago or so. It had a 959 near stlouis Missouri lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Watch the Euro change its mind again lol Typical model flip flopping lol

It will, it's your usual model flip flop.

Heck even April 27th did it around the 6 -7 day time frame if I remember correctly and we all know how that turned out. And both march 2021 events.

I think the baseline is set though with the ensembles around the Memphis and bootheel area.

 

[KevinH]

It will, it's your usual model flip flop.

Heck even April 27th did it around the 6 -7 day time frame if I remember correctly and we all know how that turned out. And both march 2021 events.

I think the baseline is set though with the ensembles around the Memphis and bootheel area.

SMH

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Moving forward it's gunna be a tug o war. Just your usual timeframe for them. But like I said with the ensembles seeming to have a baseline of a good position, it'll come back and forth from the baseline just usually happens in the end it may eventually be 100miles more north or more west. Just never know. But this is typical.

A lot of your big events do this tug o war. The March 17th event took till day 5 because of the model tug o war. And it took till day 5 for April 27th.

It always seems like shorter notice for major events in Alabama because we deal with uncertain trough ejections compared to the plains events where they'll issued at like day 7-8 a good bit of the time lol

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Last night, the EURO control was faster and further south with surface features than its operational. Today's operational 12z is further south and much faster than last night's operational with most of the threat through the area on Thursday. The ICON, the UK, and early looks of the UM are faster with this threat moving through Thursday. The CMA and GEM model remain more closely aligned to the GFS. The CFSv2 still shows something more like what the EURO showed prior to last night. We have yet to find two day consistency in model data so all options are still on the table. Regardless of these differences the warm sector is characterized by significant shear and instability.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Waiting for the 12z euro ensemble to finish but this is the 12z GFS ensembles surface pressure.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS with two back to back carbon copies for Alabama.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still chugging along with a potential high impact event for portions of the southeast.

What's concerning is there is already mid 60s dewpoints in place a day ahead of the system.

And once again dealing with. A potential boundary laying MCS ahead of the system.

 

[KevinH]

Still chugging along with a potential high impact event for portions of the southeast.

What's concerning is there is already mid 60s dewpoints in place a day ahead of the system.

And once again dealing with. A potential boundary laying MCS ahead of the system.

Cautiously watching like a hawk

 

[KevinH]

Not sure many of y'all understand how dangerous the GFS solution is above, do not quote me, but this could end up being our most volatile environment in the state of Alabama since April 27th 2011. Of course this will not be to that magnitude. But you always have those once in 10 year events and once in 20 events and the once in 40 years events like April 27th 2011.

***But the case in point is it's way to early to be able to tell that. This event could go that way, we still need lots more information and as to whether the ejection and trough behave correctly to make it a bad event.***

But every so often you have a large event setup with a very good synoptic setup every 10 years or so. Your very close to it with this event. April 27th 2011 is that 10 years ago event which hit that 10 year interval but was the 40 year generational one the prior one to that was the veterans day 2002 event and so on and so on.

THIS COULD END UP AS A BUST. Just had to put that out there but we should not take this event lightly if it keeps on the choo choo train tracks.

Choo choo train tracks lol

Yes, very high potential, but we just have to wait and see if/when the models settle down and stop flip flopping/come into better agreement.

I’ll wait until day 3-4 to be “concerned”.

“Alabama Alley” will DEFINITELY be something to watch in the coming weeks.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Choo choo train tracks lol

Yes, very high potential, but we just have to wait and see if/when the models settle down and stop flip flopping/come into better agreement.

I’ll wait until day 3-4 to be “concerned”.

“Alabama Alley” will DEFINITELY be something to watch in the coming weeks.

Agreed, still needs lots of data, mesoscale data could really kill a big synoptic event. Not forecasting a outbreak but just saying a synoptic scale setup with this event could be the most volatile since April 27th 2011. doesn't mean this threat will appreciate though.

*Lol I deleted the post you replied to*

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Seems like a very volatile pattern upcoming with lots of "potential" stuff bouncing around. Models generally keep a western trough in some way shape or form with strong westerly or southwesterly flow over the CONUS east of the Rockies with various surface lows spinning up through most of the forecast period. However whether any of that potential translates to reality and how high-impact of event(s) actually occur and when/where remain to be seen.

Paging @Fred Gossage to help us make sense of it all...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like a very volatile pattern upcoming with lots of "potential" stuff bouncing around. However whether any of that potential translates to reality and how high-impact of event(s) actually occur and when/where remain to be seen.

Paging @Fred Gossage to help us make sense of it all...

Lol I think I'm gunna delete my post on how dangerous this setup is hahaha. Probably isn't best in my limited knowledge to say it could be a our most volatile setup in awhile lol.

Best to get a professional opinion before jumping down a rabbit hole *wink wink*.