He will show up when it really looks pretty certain we're gonna get some kind of severe weather. Theose back-to-back carbon copies do not make me feel good Unk.
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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
- Thread starter KevinH
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akt1985
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With the second half of this potential event happening on a Saturday, at least many of us will be off work and can track it. The biggest fear is if the bad weather continues overnight Friday night/early Saturday morning that many people will tune out thinking a relaxing sleep-in day headed to the weekend. A dangerous scenario indeed.
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00z GFS with a 987mb surface low in Northeast MS Friday morning to 972mb in Somerset, KY by afternoon.
GA Stormchaser
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From the FFC AFD this morning. I like the technical description used …..”YIKES”. [emoji846]
“Finally, an active pattern resumes towards the back end of next week. Models are in decent agreement of the Gulf opening back up Wednesday night with good rain coverage along a lifting warm front. Of particular interest, models are resolving a sharp, digging shortwave trough across the Southeast on Friday, although models differ on timing with some indicating an early Friday morning
passage, and others showing a late Friday overnight passage. Either way, with the proximity to the upper-level system/support, deep moisture profiles, and abundant low- and mid-level shear (0-1km shear near 50kts, and 0-1km SRH values over 500+ m2/s2! Yikes) could
support strong to severe thunderstorms with this system in a high-shear/low-CAPE environment.”
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“Finally, an active pattern resumes towards the back end of next week. Models are in decent agreement of the Gulf opening back up Wednesday night with good rain coverage along a lifting warm front. Of particular interest, models are resolving a sharp, digging shortwave trough across the Southeast on Friday, although models differ on timing with some indicating an early Friday morning
passage, and others showing a late Friday overnight passage. Either way, with the proximity to the upper-level system/support, deep moisture profiles, and abundant low- and mid-level shear (0-1km shear near 50kts, and 0-1km SRH values over 500+ m2/s2! Yikes) could
support strong to severe thunderstorms with this system in a high-shear/low-CAPE environment.”
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KevinH
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Not a fan of 500+ SRH 
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- #206
KevinH
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D4-8 just issued. No risk areas highlighted BUT late next week definitely has their attention and mentions the possibility of adding risk areas.
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- #208
KevinH
Member
Once again… same areas as the other recent events (for now)… SMH
Very high supercell composites on the GFS For Alabama and Georgia I always say when ever there's widespread orange and red you have a pretty good event on your hands.and the one limiting factors in the globals right now is instability which I'm not sure will really be a issue.
The mesoscale parameters will be absolutely blistering if the globals keep up lol.
Both ensembles are spot on, with the favorable track, it's time to start getting a bit more serious, moving forward things will probably start to ramp up. We are in the time period were we start to see risk outlines and stuff. Wether this is a high shear / low cape event ( not sure about that part). Portions of the southeast WILL see some severe weather more and likely.
Georgia and Alabama look to be the biggest threat area considering how it ejects based on ensembles but Mississippi will probably be affected too just not sure how much.
Georgia and Alabama look to be the biggest threat area considering how it ejects based on ensembles but Mississippi will probably be affected too just not sure how much.
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Looking through GFS, ECM models and ensembles there seems to be some degree of better agreement coming into play. The parameter space on some runs does appear relatively significant. Yet even if current models verified, still think we could see timing being a limiting factor (low moving through between 06z-18z would create a less significant event than 18z-00z), but while the nature of forecasting longer range lower confidence like this means threats can easily disappear and downtrend, it also means they can change in a way that ups the severe threat. My conclusion from all of this is a pretty simple - I'm just going to wait and see haha.
@mattdanielwx what's your thought on the severe threat for Alabama is it still potentially a significant event?
CheeselandSkies
Member
06Z GFS seems to be a tad less progressive than yesterday's runs, with most of Alabama remaining in the warm sector at least until early afternoon 3/3. Weak instability might prove to be a limiting factor, mainly in the form of warm air aloft because surface moisture/moisture depth certainly won't be the issue. Forecast hodographs are absolutely monstrous, though.
However, by the time the front pushes into Georgia in the mid-afternoon, that concern lessens but 850mb/surface winds start to veer. At that point most of the shear appears to be speed rather than directional. In that case you might get strongly forced, fast moving quasi-linear storms that produce damaging winds and "brief but potentially strong" tornado spin-ups. Might not be a large window for classic, long-duration tornadic supercells like Selma/Autauga Co. in January, but then again the models didn't really key in on that until the morning of.
Yet another one of those tricky situations where the line between a total non-event and something like that January event or the early March 2020 middle Tennessee tornadic supercell might be pretty fine.
However, by the time the front pushes into Georgia in the mid-afternoon, that concern lessens but 850mb/surface winds start to veer. At that point most of the shear appears to be speed rather than directional. In that case you might get strongly forced, fast moving quasi-linear storms that produce damaging winds and "brief but potentially strong" tornado spin-ups. Might not be a large window for classic, long-duration tornadic supercells like Selma/Autauga Co. in January, but then again the models didn't really key in on that until the morning of.
Yet another one of those tricky situations where the line between a total non-event and something like that January event or the early March 2020 middle Tennessee tornadic supercell might be pretty fine.
Clancy
Member
Take a look at that hodo (over N GA at 21Z Friday 3/03). I think it's trying to escape.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Dunno if I've seen one that was LITERALLY off the chart before...I think that means the 1KM winds are greater than 70kts, correct?
CheeselandSkies
Member
Clancy
Member
I *think* so, but would double check with someone more knowledgeable on that so don't quote me.
GFS is the definition of consistency with it's last 6 runs.
Euro is coming back to it's original idea slowly, especially to it's baseline of the ensembles.
A potential significant event is on the horizon.
Euro is coming back to it's original idea slowly, especially to it's baseline of the ensembles.
A potential significant event is on the horizon.
