Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

Interesting. What you guys think about the bottom portion of the AFD?


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
431 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

(Today)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

High pressure will build into the central Plains and southeast
U.S. tonight into Friday. After morning lows in the middle 30s,
cold advection will keep highs in the lower 50s for most, and
middle 40s for the higher plateau areas. High clouds will skirt
the area Friday night into Saturday, mainly south of the TN River.
Highs will reach the lower to middle 50s depending on the cloud
coverage.

The active pattern continues with another trough entering the
southern Plains, attempting to phase with the northern stream
trough. Multi-surface low development is forecast Saturday, with
one in the OK area and another along the central Gulf Coast. The
attendant warm sector will remain to our south this go around,
but ample isentropic lift and expansive moisture transport across
the region will produce widespread showers across the area. The
heaviest will be just to our south where the Day 3 WPC marginal
risk of excessive rainfall is forecast. Light shower chances will
last into Sunday and Sunday night until the shortwave trough axis
swings through the region. Temperatures will remain near normal
however as a modified cP airmass arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

A dry Monday is anticipated with high pressure quickly translating
east through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. But the
break in the wet weather won`t last long. Another very similar
upper trough will push out of the Rockies and through the Plains
Monday, but will be further amplified into the lower MS Valley.
This will keep the unstable warm sector suppressed to our south
where the LLJ and convergence zone will produce widespread
convection again. Strong -divQ/UVV associated with the upper
trough (especially the ECMWF) will produce a secondary area of
precipitation further northwest over the mid South into the TN
valley on Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday, with the surface
low track from central MS through Pickwick Lake and into KY. This
will be followed by a larger intrusion of colder and more
seasonable air. Its very early, so for now, leaving out wintry
precipitation, but will need to watch this evolving system closely
for some winter wraparound precip potential.
 
What will be stupid is if the old GFS runs that showed a major severe threat that was talked about in which major systems usually are consistent farther out; start to be the same as the current GFS runs.
 
I'm not very excited about either solution right now. I would lean towards a severe threat aimed at the Gulf Coast given the present operational/ensemble output. Let's see what trends show over the next few days.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I'm not very excited about either solution right now. I would lean towards a severe threat aimed at the Gulf Coast given the present operational/ensemble output. Let's see what trends show over the next few days.
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Good point there, probably is best to wait until ensemble supports the operational. Probably why it's been flopping around.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The old GFS runs that where alarming, are basically the same as the newest runs.
Click to expand...

If today's 12Z GFS is right at this range (a big "if"), it looks like the severe threat will be confined pretty close to the Gulf coast, but it could be some of the same areas under the gun that have been repeatedly over the course of the last year, such as New Orleans and the Pine Belt region of Mississippi, to about the I-20 corridor in AL at the furthest north.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
If today's 12Z GFS is right at this range (a big "if"), it looks like the severe threat will be confined pretty close to the Gulf coast, but it could be some of the same areas under the gun that have been repeatedly over the course of the last year, such as New Orleans and the Pine Belt region of Mississippi.
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Not sure, honestly how I see it, it may be a case where storms ride along the warm front as it progresses north and then later starting in the southwest of the warm sector storms start to initiate and can go through the warm sector to the northeast. It'll be interesting to see how things evolve. I don't see a issue in mositure being able to get into central Alabama and portions of the southern part of north Alabama.

But the GFS Operational supports this line of thinking. Either way the potential makes me uneasy
 
Give me one second I'm going to screenshot some pictures and show you why I think this solution, I'll attach it to this post. the circled pic is with the warm front and the supercells popping up near the state line. GFS shows very isolated convection and then you can sorta see the warm front and some of the storms pushing north with the warm front.

Needs more ensemble supports though .Screenshot_20230119-121221-389.pngScreenshot_20230119-121143-956.png
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Not sure, honestly how I see it, it may be a case where storms ride along the warm front as it progresses north and then later starting in the southwest of the warm sector storms start to initiate and can go through the warm sector to the northeast. It'll be interesting to see how things evolve. I don't see a issue in mositure being able to get into central Alabama and portions of the southern part of north Alabama.

But the GFS Operational supports this line of thinking. Either way the potential makes me uneasy
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And here you are, right in the middle of it. AGAIN.
 
Been a while since our synoptic scale severe wx whisperer, @Fred Gossage , chimed in on one of these upcoming setups. I'm sure he's busy with TN Valley Weather and any other projects he's got going on, but we'd all value his opinion. If he does take the time to write up a detailed dissertation for this forum, you know he's concerned and chances are it's going to end up pretty rough (case in point, 12/10/21 when he almost singlehandedly filled out the entire first page or two of the thread). Like Spann when the coat and tie come off (or on 4/27/11 when I don't think he ever got around to putting them on in the first place).
 
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just my thoughts here and internal dialogue, anybody can debate this, but what the current 12z GFS and euro shows has potential to support a very high end tornado event. There's a lot of factors here to support the line of thinking that instability values are significantly under forecasted. We are looking at A very significant event guys. Please keep a eye on this.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Been a while since our synoptic scale severe wx whisperer, @Fred Gossage , chimed on one of these upcoming setups. I'm sure he's busy with TN Valley Weather and any other projects he's got going on, but we'd all value his opinion. If he does take the time to write up a detailed dissertation for this forum, you know he's concerned and chances are it's going to end up pretty rough (case in point, 12/10/21 when he almost singlehandedly filled out the entire first page or two of the thread). Like Spann when the coat and tie come off (or on 4/27/11 when I don't think he ever got around to putting them on in the first place).
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Didn't mean to post at the same time as you lol, I guess we where typing at the same time. But I hope he does put some word in, somebody with a meteorology degrees input is important.
 
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