ashtonlemleywx
Member
Its not showing tornado probs for that day yet. It is showing some severe probs on Sunday that just caught my eye.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Looks like SE AL, SW GA, and FL Panhandle have severe potential on Sunday. I also grabbed the updraft helicity from C-Shield and it matches well with CIPS Guidance.
MattPetrulli
Member
12z GFS setup is very similar to 2/23/16
ashtonlemleywx
Member
February 23, 2016 Tornado Event
www.weather.gov
Here is a post analysis from NWS Mobile for Feb 23, 2016. Lots of good data/graphics here to compare with.
JPWX
Member
Just looked at the 12z GFS 500mb level for next Wednesday. All I can say is WOW! The 12z Canadian and Euro are similar as well. Just a few miles difference west or east in that low pressure track will depend on a significant winter storm or significant severe weather outbreak potential. LOL! Goes further East- A winter weather threat for the Mid-South region, further West- a severe weather threat for the entirety of the Gulf States. This is how meteorologists loose their hair.
Good analog, I almost think the parameters support a even higher event than this, I'll have to sit down and look at this one. Always good to compare similar events and see how they evolve12z GFS setup is very similar to 2/23/16
JPWX
Member
Something doesn't sit right with me on this event lol. I'm gunna have to check cips and see similar analogs. Just a lot of little things. 850mb winds are at 70+knots in Alabama. Compared to the around 50-60 range for the analog posted above. Alabama is right in the subsidence zone. With storms working over the atmosphere moving northward usually leaves clearing. I'm gunna have to look around and mix and match some analogs. This event might just collapse on itself partially if there's not enough instability with how strong shear values are. Likely will need to reach moderate to high instabilty for anything substantial
GA Stormchaser
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“Severe Wx whisperer”. That is perfect for Fred.
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One event I would really like to look at is the Midwest outbreak in November 2013. Not the southeast but I'd like to see something with the low pressure system and how it bombed out like the forecast one next week does.
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The one where he talked about the sick feeling in the pit of his stomach? Me too.
One thing that needs to be noted, is pressure falls, with the low pressure semi bombing out, a good deal of pressure falls will happen. Lee county tornado utilized pressure falls it elevated the tornado threat that day. Usually with our tornado event we don't deal with bombing out low pressure systems and if we do we are pretty distant.., they can also vacuum in a lot more instability. Aka November 17 2013 tornado outbreak in the Midwest. Well away from the Gulf but managed to draw in 2000j of instability.
18z continues the more severe trend. Would possible be some more issues with storm mode etc but all of that is still a bit far away. The more concerning thing is the trend to a now more properly developed warm sector and surface low. In previous runs the isobars were fairly weak in the warm sector, which was probably contributing a bit to the moisture issues, but latest GFS run has that 'proper warm sector wind field' look, if you know what I mean. 70kt LLJ with 65F dews is never a good thing in Dixie Alley, even at 130 hours on the GFS. Needs more close watching, especially if the trend continues.
I want to note something to you.. I had to think about it, but with the position of the convection initiator the cold front. It shoots out ahead and almost goes north south from the bottom of the low to the Gulf. Most of our fronts lag behind and cause issues with storm mode. This setup supports isolated due to the conditions of initiation. I'd like it to be more westerly but that'd require a more broader 500mb base. But still
With a bombing low it also makes a wind shift that increases backing winds in accordance to where the low is
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MattPetrulli
Member
12/25/12 would be another good synoptic analog, however environment is likely a little too high end on 12/25/12 for this setup.
JPWX
Member
You know it's a bad sign when the 500mb height wind speed is nearly the same as the bulk shear wind speed.
Those values Favor long tracked supercells.
According to the nws 60-70+ favor long track supercells.. with the addition of other values
Some of these parameters don't just meet the requirement for a outbreak; they exceed it.
Another thing the Jetstreak at 200mb Alabama is on the nose of it another factor for a robust event. Atleast from the 12z haven't checked the 18z stuff.
Lol the 18z changed a bit stuff. Rather have a deeper low for a substantial event will see how it goes.
Another thing the Jetstreak at 200mb Alabama is on the nose of it another factor for a robust event. Atleast from the 12z haven't checked the 18z stuff.
Lol the 18z changed a bit stuff. Rather have a deeper low for a substantial event will see how it goes.
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This is a post from storm track on height falls rapidly deepening lows will create substantial height falls in the southeast quadrant of the low. It can lead to many major factors in terms of instability and vertical lift. Btw a treasure trove of good information is always on storm track. This is why the forecast is tricky instability should be ample especially considering the 70+kt winds from the south right above the surface and a lot of small synoptic scale features.
