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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
KevinH
Member
Well ok THEN… lol
Upper 60s dewpoints.. with low 70s right off shore. Won't take much for the LLJ to push that north further into the deep south. Picture wont upload unfortunately.
Austin Dawg
Member
Wow. I hope this is Fantasy GFS land..... but I remember seeing a GFS long-range once that took a hurricane across Florida into the Gulf, became a Cat 5, and landed it between Louisiana and Mississippi. They laughed at that longe range GFS model.
Now, what was its name???
Oh yeah, Katrina
This is what I was saying in one of the other threads, your big time events usually make a name for themselves pretty far out in modeling like the example you've given. The blizzard of 93 was consistent far off in modeling, April 27th 2011 was. April 28th 2014 was. Its kindve odd. Hopefully this doesn't come to fruition but its always good to keep a close eye on things.
What's also alarming me is the consistency. Usually when you get even just one model being so consistent on something its alarming. Drawing on UK weather experience, the 40.3c heatwave in July was being shown from the 300 hour + GFS charts all the way up to when it happened. Obviously timings changed and some run weren't showing the same thing, but the broad pattern was consistent and ended up verifying from 14 days out - something really rare in the UK. Not to say that these GFS runs are definitely going to happen, but it was just a thought.
KevinH
Member
Did those storms consistently have one model screaming this far out or SEVERAL models?
Don't remember I know April 28th 2014 had a day 6 SPC outline and April 27th had day 5. So they had enough consensus with globals to outline by then.
- Moderator
- #9
We saw today in the 12z EURO run a shift west with features that would allow a warm sector and severe weather threat potentially significant to materialize this period albeit with different timing and location compared to the GFS. This period is still mixed within operational and ensemble guidance. However, things that look less questionable is the immense wind energy modeled and also the unseasonably moistened Gulf 65+ dewpoints waiting to be drawn north.
I’d watch for the westward shifts to continue within other guidance towards the GFS. Of note the 18z ensemble guidance showed three relatively similar looks to the operational and they were significant threats. I also see there has been backing of the trough axis, and amplification of the ridge in the GEFS mean. So with all that said I’m currently giving it a slight advantage 60/40 of being an event.
I’d watch for the westward shifts to continue within other guidance towards the GFS. Of note the 18z ensemble guidance showed three relatively similar looks to the operational and they were significant threats. I also see there has been backing of the trough axis, and amplification of the ridge in the GEFS mean. So with all that said I’m currently giving it a slight advantage 60/40 of being an event.
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Yeah with this event it's almost a early-mid spring look moisture wise; It's remarkable.
GFS Operational just gave a decent snow event looks. I wonder if it's going to cave to the euro.. I'll be happy with that I want some snow.
Oh wow! The euro has a big snow storm for the deep south lol. Please do maintain this look globals I would love this a whole lot more than tornadoes!
Lol this thread might want to be changed to snow/severe threat lol
JPWX
Member
While I would love a big snow event across the Deep South, I'm currently thinking we're more in line for another heavy rain/severe threat. However, having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw both occur just days apart.
KevinH
Member
Speak for yourself! Hahaha
We don’t know how to handle snow here. We have enough trouble handling tornadoes as it is! LOL! It will be interesting to see how things evolve bc WTH is Dixie doing?! Ha
Yeah it'd be best to bet on the severe threat a lot more past consistency with that idea. I almost wanna wish cast some snow for my area though hahah! It's been like 9 years since a a 2/3+ inch snow total at my house.
Actually now that I think about it they're may have been a event in-between that time that gave me a good snow can't remember which year though
JPWX
Member
My last big snow was February 2015. Got 8 inches out of it. My highest snow total I've ever recorded personally.
That may have been the same event as the one we're we got like 6 inches where I was at. It was either February of 2014 or 2015. There was a lot of winter mischief in the January and February of those years.
Clancy
Member
If it snows in Georgia you can usually count on being unable to find groceries for like 3 days and seeing 1,000 abandoned cars on the side of the road.
