Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Far south Alabama or central/southern Alabama?

My guess i20 corridor and south.. we will see though can't wait for mesoscale models to get it.

 

[KevinH]

My guess i20 corridor and south.. we will see though can't wait for mesoscale models to get it.

Yeah I am going to need the mesoscale models to get it because this may include me LOL.

Since storms TEND to travel east or northeast, I pay attention when they form to my west and southwest.

 

[JPWX]

I just looked at the 12z Euro for January 25th. Boy, if we had more cold air around, this would be the perfect setup for a major Southeast snow event.

 

[KevinH]

I just looked at the 12z Euro for January 25th. Boy, if we had more cold air around, this would be the perfect setup for a major Southeast snow event.

View attachment 16962

No snow!!!!!!! lol

 

[UK_EF4]

I get the sense the main severe weather day could be trending to the 24th. None of the GEFS have the main trough going through the SE on the 25th anymore, but most have a powerful trough during the afternoon/evening of the 24th, while ECM seems to be heading towards the GFS solution (UKMET similar but slightly slower trough). Could be some pretty favourable parameters in place, but models seem to currently struggle to bring a surface low far north enough for a broad open warm sector. We will see how things progress.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I get the sense the main severe weather day could be trending to the 24th. None of the GEFS have the main trough going through the SE on the 25th anymore, but most have a powerful trough during the afternoon/evening of the 24th, while ECM seems to be heading towards the GFS solution (UKMET similar but slightly slower trough). Could be some pretty favourable parameters in place, but models seem to currently struggle to bring a surface low far north enough for a broad open warm sector. We will see how things progress.

Latest euro run is a winter event for the upper south …

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Latest euro run is a winter event for the upper south …

Me at the thought of some sizeable snow

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Latest euro run is a winter event for the upper south …

That 24th time frame is a big snow for the south the previous one is upper south it seems. Timing will have to be right and the snow will have to be heavy for it to stick though just based off forecast surface temps

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Big snow for the south. Only thing is temps are at or around the mid to lower 30s. Reminds me of a system we had somewhere in the past 10 years where the heavy snow overcame the warmer surface temps... I wish my pictures would upload.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Big snow for the south. Only thing is temps are at or around the mid to lower 30s. Reminds me of a system we had somewhere in the past 10 years where the heavy snow overcame the warmer surface temps... I wish my pictures would upload.

Yeah good rates can over come marginal temps for sure

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah good rates can over come marginal temps for sure

Definetly throw in a little dynamic cooling and voila you have your typical Miller a for Alabama haha. Man I'm getting pretty excited at the possibility. I guess the euro sniffed out the GFS... Only time will tell.

 

[KevinH]

Definetly throw in a little dynamic cooling and voila you have your typical Miller a for Alabama haha. Man I'm getting pretty excited at the possibility. I guess the euro sniffed out the GFS... Only time will tell.

Miller?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Miller?

it's the best scenario for snow in Alabama and also usually leaves big snow up the east coast. Almost every single big snow event the deep south has is from a miller A.

 

[warneagle]

it's the best scenario for snow in Alabama and also usually leaves big snow up the east coast. Almost every single big snow event the deep south has is from a miller A.

No thanks

 

[KevinH]

it's the best scenario for snow in Alabama and also usually leaves big snow up the east coast. Almost every single big snow event the deep south has is from a miller A.View attachment 16969

Define the word: “miller”

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Define the word: “miller”

Lol just the guy who trademarked his name I think along with the patterns of typical patterns that produce snow or ice storms.

Miller is the guy who came up with the classifications of types of storms like there's many types https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hey can the thread be changed to snow/severe it's a bit more evident now that we may be looking a pretty good chance for snow as well. I think models may be picking up on more of a snow look now instead of the severe. Or atleast change it when there's a few more model runs.

 

[KevinH]

Lol just the guy who trademarked his name I think along with the patterns of typical patterns that produce snow or ice storms.

Miller is the guy who came up with the classifications of types of storms like there's many types https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

Oh! I was today years old lol

 

[KevinH]

Hey can the thread be changed to snow/severe it's a bit more evident now that we may be looking a pretty good chance for snow as well. I think models may be picking up on more of a snow look now instead of the severe. Or atleast change it when there's a few more model runs.

You are REALLY pushing for that snow aren’t you? ROFL!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

You are REALLY pushing for that snow aren’t you? ROFL!

Well the new 12z nam is pushing the narrative of further digging troughs. Doesn't even look like severe weather will be a issue with the threat on the 22nd or around that with how things are going now. Honestly it looks like the euros solution of a snow threat is more palpable than the GFS severe solution..