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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Maybe it changes back who knows I'm curious to some of the ensembles and what they show. Compared to the operationalw
So close to a major snow system with the GFS. Waiting on a consensus with both globals
aujerm
Member
I don’t see much snow with the 12z GFS run. Still looks to be mostly liquid precipitation.” with the exception of NW Arkansas
Yeah the low needs to be a bit deeper and closed and be a bit more farther south. It's pretty close the euro shows it, just not the GFS yet
Synoptically, GEM seems the most high-end at the moment, similar to those older GFS runs. ECM is just weird at the moment, GFS is kind of weird and I can't see the UMET run on pivotal weather at the moment. Still a lot of uncertainty it seems.
aujerm
Member
I see what you’re saying with the euro now. Really wish that low was tracking a bit farther southeast to give us some snow in north Georgia. It looks like there is now some good consensus on some cold air moving in to the southeast for several days after the aforementioned system clears out.
Lol these global models are taking years off my life. 12z euro is going with a similar situation the the old GFS runs lol
JPWX
Member
The 18z GFS be like DO YOU WANNA BUILD A SNOWMAN towards the end of the month. Can we have a double feature of both severe weather and then a snowstorm within days apart? Why yes. Yes we can.
If GFS ensembles are correct buckle up for some snow with the system on the 24th. Lol basically the euro is the old GFS solutions and the GFS is the old euro solutions theyve flipped flopped
Well if anything bad came out of the new model runs here overnight. It's gotta be that the upper level low is stacked with the surface low.. some big height falls and also both GFS and euro on board with a robust threat for bad weather. Will keep a eye on it
The subtropical jet not being merged with the artic jet will cause convection on the Gulf limiting any severe threat to it's north though
JPWX
Member
Any shift east in that low pressure area on the 00z Euro would be a significant winter event for at least the Mid-South region into western/northwest Alabama.
I wish models would decide one one solution haha. It's making me bi polar because it's like a 100 mile shift southeast would mean decent snow and a 100 mile shift northwest would mean a possible significant severe event. Ill be happy when there's general consensus so we can start to lockdown on potential threats and the finer details. And make no mistake I'm wishing for the snow event. Long overdue for a decent snow here lol
The trough is incredibly deep for the snow severe event
Reminds me of some the super deep bowling balls of the 2021 spring outbreaks in the deep south
Reminds me of some the super deep bowling balls of the 2021 spring outbreaks in the deep south
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12z GFS just plain nasty.
That is the quintessential placement of and upper level low for a Alabama outbreak. You literally won't get any better than that.
Let's see how the minor details play out wether Gulf convection is a issue or timing and etc.
That is the quintessential placement of and upper level low for a Alabama outbreak. You literally won't get any better than that.
Let's see how the minor details play out wether Gulf convection is a issue or timing and etc.
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My feelings exactly. A major look for Alabama.
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ashtonlemleywx
Member
Yeah I just came here to talk about 12z GFS. Showing much better moisture advection.
The 12z GFS not only showed that. But the directional shear is perfect. The backing of winds is phenonoal everything is what you would see text book wise for Alabama. Look at the large sickle on the hodograph. If this was spring.. it'd be a big oof.
