Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

If it snows in Georgia you can usually count on being unable to find groceries for like 3 days and seeing 1,000 abandoned cars on the side of the road.

Lol it depends how well it's forecast as well. A lot of our snow events in the south are borderline temp issues and ultimately end up melting some on contact and then freezing on the surface which is different than a lot of other regions that can predict and salt. I actually don't think how the south drives is that bad considering the things we deal with. Most of our events don't give us enough time to salt and most of our stuff starts off melting on contact before freezing once the surface temp is cold enough. I may be wrong but that's my assumption the south gets crapped on about this but most of our stuff turns into ice events. Or either don't get salted.

Lol nobody can drive on ice and I mean nobody. UNLESS you have chains for your tires which I carry 24/7 . No travel issues for me unless cars block the roads haha

 

[KevinH]

If it snows in Georgia you can usually count on being unable to find groceries for like 3 days and seeing 1,000 abandoned cars on the side of the road.

You speak the absolute truth lol

 

[MichelleH]

That may have been the same event as the one we're we got like 6 inches where I was at. It was either February of 2014 or 2015. There was a lot of winter mischief in the January and February of those years.

2014 was "Snowmageddon."

 

[Sawmaster]

If it snows in Georgia you can usually count on being unable to find groceries for like 3 days and seeing 1,000 abandoned cars on the side of the road.

South Carolina too. When the TV meteorologists announce a soon-to-hit snow event, they call it a "Bread and milk alert" because those disappear from store shelves faster than spin-up tornadoes form in the springtime Up in the hills beer and bologna do the same thing

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z GFS shifted back to the significant severe event. I guess the last two runs where flukes lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS forecast of shear is extreme in the warm sector. Values of around 500 srh helicity in The 1km. For example 200 in the 1km is considered very good for tornadoes. Just a look at soundings.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Those soundings above are phenomenal speed shear and directional shear. Disregard instability values for now. Just understand shear wise it's in the upper echelon for a warm sector just thought I'd write it out. The last event we just had with the long track tornadoes ran off around 200-300 1km srh helicity just for example.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The instability values will be skewed I'm afraid, another thing is we are right in that right bottom square of the 500mb axis which makes the environment conducive for clearing skies leading to rising instability and lapse rates. And with a low level jet at around 70+ mph just above the surface instability will be ushered in fairly quick I assume. Just my hot takes don't take it for forecast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It's funny you say Easter 2020 as a example the ejection of the trough is similar to that event. I'd actually like to compare those two events there pretty similar


The 500mb is different though but that works in this events favor

I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).

If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.

I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.

 

[UK_EF4]

It's funny you say Easter 2020 as a example the ejection of the trough is similar to that event. I'd actually like to compare those two events there pretty similar

Yeah I was thinking... relatively similar compact and potent negatively tilted trough.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah I was thinking... relatively similar compact and potent negatively tilted trough.

Actually the 500mb is almost spot on other than it being diffluent and this one not. (at this point in time) just took a look at it. I don't think this event will have as much reach as the Easter one. Seems just solely the deep south at this point.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Surface analysis and 500mb. Of forecasted by GFS for next week and the Easter 2020 setup. Pretty similar... The GFS has the low pressure at 991 bombogenisis occuring as it's ejecting from the Gulf, this will really back the winds and make some serious height falls, both are not good.

Overall the GFS prediction for the upcoming event is deeper and stronger by a decent bit than the Easter one. A deep bowling ball in the 500mb with a deep surface low. Almost 10mb deeper than the Easter event.

** big oof. On my part I thought it showed a 991 mb low on the GFS actually a 999 and does not bomb out when it ejects; it is still a deeper 500mb ***

 

[UK_EF4]

Surface analysis and 500mb. Of forecasted by GFS for next week and the Easter 2020 setup. Pretty similar... The GFS has the low pressure at 991 bombogenisis occuring as it's ejecting from the Gulf, this will really back the winds and make some serious height falls, both are not good.

Overall the GFS prediction for the upcoming event is deeper and stronger by a decent bit than the Easter one. A deep bowling ball in the 500mb with a deep surface low. Almost 10mb deeper than the Easter event. View attachment 16954View attachment 16955View attachment 16956View attachment 16957

Also this is more a hypothetical and just for 'fun' (not that any of these events really are) discussion, but some of those earlier GFS runs with a really tight and defined surface low right at the top of the warm sector, reminded me slightly of the surface low in the Easter Outbreak that ended up being a very prolific QLCS tornado producer.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also this is more a hypothetical and just for 'fun' (not that any of these events really are) discussion, but some of those earlier GFS runs with a really tight and defined surface low right at the top of the warm sector, reminded me slightly of the surface low in the Easter Outbreak that ended up being a very prolific QLCS tornado producer.

Yup, most of my posts are just jib and conclusions I come to, mainly my thoughts process lol so if anybody looks at my posts these are my unfiltered unprofessional opinions. I like to compare and see what looks like what and what happened with what.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also this is more a hypothetical and just for 'fun' (not that any of these events really are) discussion, but some of those earlier GFS runs with a really tight and defined surface low right at the top of the warm sector, reminded me slightly of the surface low in the Easter Outbreak that ended up being a very prolific QLCS tornado producer.

Yeah I think it had a pretty deep low as well upper 980s on one of the previous runs. I think the synoptics of this event points at a significant weather event somewhere but it'll take us getting closer in range to fine tune

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also we better not sleep on the 22nd event. It's actually starting to look sneakily robust again.

Looks to be a south Alabama event though with convection riding the warm front... Keep a close eye on it

 

[UK_EF4]

Luckily GFS 18z is still not a favourable setup for a major tornado outbreak as runs a few days ago were. Latest GFS solutions seem more supportive of a slightly less strong and faster trough which would limit severe potential. Let's hope this trend continues.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Luckily GFS 18z is still not a favourable setup for a major tornado outbreak as runs a few days ago were. Latest GFS solutions seem more supportive of a slightly less strong and faster trough which would limit severe potential. Let's hope this trend continues.

Thankfully, I almost have a slight feeling like the GFS will cave to the euro now. With how things are evolving.. hey if it means a better chance for snow I'll take it haha

 

[UK_EF4]

Thankfully, I almost have a slight feeling like the GFS will cave to the euro now. With how things are evolving.. hey if it means a better chance for snow I'll take it haha

I had a quick peek at the GFS ensembles as well. Interestingly, most members do have a favourable shaped intense trough (similar to those crazy GFS runs) crossing from Texas into Dixie Alley next Wednesday. However, it looks like quite a lot have the trough moving through relatively quickly during the morning (09z-18z), with less time to draw up moisture and improperly timed with peak heating. So that seems like we could get a powerful trough moving through with less favourable ejection time... though that is one of those things we really have to watch as they could trend either way. Just speculation for now though.

 

[KevinH]

Also we better not sleep on the 22nd event. It's actually starting to look sneakily robust again.

Looks to be a south Alabama event though with convection riding the warm front... Keep a close eye on it

Far south Alabama or central/southern Alabama?