F
Former Member 1430
Guest
What is your opinion on further north like middle TN and east middle TN? Do we dodge this bullet?
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
I don’t remember where I read this but too much shear can tear apart the updrafts and cause the storms to not be able to get going even though all other parameters are good. I think James Spann said it actually because I think that was a concern on April 27th
Yes unless there's a marginally severe storm that rides the warm front north into Tennessee.
Brice
Member
This is what happened on may 20 there was such high shear that the storms tore apart. (for the most part with exception of magnum)
Good post!, I mentioned that earlier, my thoughts where if we do not reach around 2000j of instability.. maybe 1500j it'll be a bust. There's a extreme amount of speed shear. There's a few factors that I think will lead to instability around those values but we will see. I'd love to see some analysis by some mets in this forumn, hopefully Fred will pop in and give a analysis.
The dry air was also under forecasted and busted it too, was a few things that were different on that day. That day would have been remarkable if things were spot on with forecast models!
Brice
Member
Correct, don’t think we’ll have a ceiling as high as may 20, but this system is no slouch for sure
Definetly, some of those parameters where "once in a generation parameters" according to some of the Mets I had listened too. Thankfully it busted.
KevinH
Member
Tuesday afternoon
KevinH
Member
Uhmmmmm…
Brice
Member
Good lord..
JPWX
Member
Models be like next week for the Gulf States:
Severe Weather: "I'm coming!"
Winter Weather: "No, I'm gonna enter the scene!"
Severe Weather: "I'm coming back!"
Severe Weather: "I'm coming!"
Winter Weather: "No, I'm gonna enter the scene!"
Severe Weather: "I'm coming back!"
KevinH
Member
Right
KevinH
Member
What's remarkable is the large sickle hodographs.
Not as pronounced on the 18z, but 12z was nasty.
Not as pronounced on the 18z, but 12z was nasty.
- Moderator
- #136
The GFS is still adjusting the energy considerably.
The EURO for comparison.
Edit: Can we please get the word “Winter” removed from this thread. Thank you.
The EURO for comparison.
Edit: Can we please get the word “Winter” removed from this thread. Thank you.
Last edited:
- Thread starter
- #137
Lake Martin EF4
Member
MattPetrulli
Member
Slowing trend, if it ejects in middle of the night like what 00z is suggesting we may not maximize the ceiling, that being said still a siggy event possible. Trough ejection 6-12 hours earlier or faster would make for a much worse event
GFS continues the trend towards better moisture return, a more wide and open warm sector, and a more favourably placed low. It seems other models do agree on severe potential along the Gulf Coast, so I'm wondering if the SPC will put an outlook up for a small region today.
However the GFS (which seems to almost be the 'trendsetter' in this event so far) is insistent on a more significant thread further inland. Like Matt just said, if the trough ejects with the right timing, and the warm sector is broad and open, then we could have a properly serious event on our hands. Luckily we are not at that stage yet.
However the GFS (which seems to almost be the 'trendsetter' in this event so far) is insistent on a more significant thread further inland. Like Matt just said, if the trough ejects with the right timing, and the warm sector is broad and open, then we could have a properly serious event on our hands. Luckily we are not at that stage yet.
