Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS continues the trend towards better moisture return, a more wide and open warm sector, and a more favourably placed low. It seems other models do agree on severe potential along the Gulf Coast, so I'm wondering if the SPC will put an outlook up for a small region today.

However the GFS (which seems to almost be the 'trendsetter' in this event so far) is insistent on a more significant thread further inland. Like Matt just said, if the trough ejects with the right timing, and the warm sector is broad and open, then we could have a properly serious event on our hands. Luckily we are not at that stage yet.

View attachment 17009

There's a few factors supporting a more inland threat, honestly it doesn't surprise me that the GFS is jumping on baord with showing it. I think this will be a pretty robust event for the state of Alabama from central Alabama down if I had to guess.

Still a lot of questions to be answered with this event though, not sold 100% on it

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Check this out... Good grief

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Check this out... Good grief

Fairly accurate, it's done well on previous events I think it was spot on with the December 2021 one in Kentucky at that area.

Honestly the values above are phenonoal

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A new super res run (1km) from the mmfs will come from this guy in a bit so I'll try and check back when he posts it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[KevinH]

Check this out... Good grief

Oh sh*t. I am right at the NE edge of the slight risk area (for now) AND since storms travel NE, I will have to watch this more than I thought.

 

[Sawmaster]

I will have to watch this more than I thought.

Well that's sensible, and something I do. Which was is a major reason for me coming here to partake of the forecasting expertise of the other members here which I'm not good with. The SPC is generally good and accurate, but you get a wider range of the possibilities here which they don't cover in such detail by following along here.

I wouldn't worry too much in Columbus yet but definitely watch this one as it develops.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Another solid run with the 6z gfs.
Sounding from around troy Alabama

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Another post by Tyler commenting on the mmfs forecast I posted earlier

 

[KevinH]

Well that's sensible, and something I do. Which was is a major reason for me coming here to partake of the forecasting expertise of the other members here which I'm not good with. The SPC is generally good and accurate, but you get a wider range of the possibilities here which they don't cover in such detail by following along here.

I wouldn't worry too much in Columbus yet but definitely watch this one as it develops.

Yep… that’s the plan. A highlight this close to me this far out warrants more attention than usual. Just have to keep watching things.

 

[Clancy]

A lot of the runs seem to be limiting the threat to the Gulf Coast. 06Z GFS, however, has a narrow tongue of instability moving across AL and GA late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Definitely worth watching the fine details closely on this one.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is a pretty good analog for Tuesday. https://www.weather.gov/mob/2011_April15_Tornado

Eh. I take it back lol it's more so a low instabiliyy high shear event that was pretty dangerous, not very similar synoptically

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Interesting nugget of data. The Nam at hour 84. Has our main low that will effect us still down in Mexico with a secondary low north into Texas Oklahoma raising a warm front and backing winds which will pull in moisture starting a day ahead of the event. Maybe the GFS and euro show this too. My internet is not the best right now so I haven't looked.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

With the overnight model data, the GFS/CMC were the furtherest north with the surface low and the others were significantly further south. The operational GFS remains the most aggressive with the warm sector intrusion. The EURO was confined very close to the coast and not as aggressive as the previous run. The Canadian does not show the instability moving inland. The subtropical jet influence raises questions that the warm front may not be able to advance north well. At this time, the model data still seems too uncertain to verify that this will be an impactful severe event.

 

[KevinH]

Paging @Fred Gossage LOL

 

[The Nino]

Paging @Fred Gossage LOL

someone fire up the Fred batman spotlight

 

[JPWX]

Or this.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

As of now this seems limited to South MS, South Alabama, SE LA, and West FL Panhandle.
I could be wrong but I think the GFS has the surface low too far North. Canadian and Euro solution both seem like the most probable solutions at the moment. I just don't see any decent moisture advection happening North of I-20 in MS and Hwy 80 in Alabama.

I'm just going to stop guessing. Especially since the global models have a terrible track record with moisture advection in the Winter. I'm just wait until we are in CAM range.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

As of now this seems limited to South MS, South Alabama, SE LA, and West FL Panhandle.
I could be wrong but I think the GFS has the surface low too far North. Canadian and Euro solution both seem like the most probable solutions at the moment. I just don't see any decent moisture advection happening North of I-20 in MS and Hwy 80 in Alabama.

I'm just going to stop guessing. Especially since the global models have a terrible track record with moisture advection in the Winter. I'm just wait until we are in CAM range.

New hi res mmfs run will come out from the creator soon

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO and GFS starting to favor a nasty environment in south Texas.