GA Stormchaser
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- Flowery Branch, GA
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I enjoy your “ramblings” and “insights” into these events.
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April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
I enjoy your “ramblings” and “insights” into these events.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A good read, read through the comments back forth between Tyler and Michael, Michael is a pretty experienced meteorologist. He works for the NWS of mobile
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Not looking pretty on the latest C-Shield run
ashtonlemleywx
Member
C-Shield can be bullish but its highlighting the area that we were already focused on.
KevinH
Member
Oh lol
KevinH
Member
Same
Yessirrrr
The NWS of mobile with every new model run... Lol 
KevinH
Member
Miiiiiight be a good idea to postpone the update
Just looking around at some of the 18z models. Just noticed theres two lifting mechanisms at 200mb... Divergence and diffluence at the 200mb Uh... Lol.
Purple circle is divergence and the red lines is the diffluence zone from the artic jet and subtropical jet splitting from being merged.
That's what you call a double whammy lol
The vertical motion in the atmosphere is gnarly for this event lol.
Purple circle is divergence and the red lines is the diffluence zone from the artic jet and subtropical jet splitting from being merged.
That's what you call a double whammy lol
The vertical motion in the atmosphere is gnarly for this event lol.
KevinH
Member
The “uh” in your comment isn’t comforting LOL
GOOD TO KNOW THOUGH! The area you highlighted is the same area the SPC did.
WATCHING LIKE A HAWK.
Hands down one of the better hodograph Ive seen since looking at them 2013 till now. Vbv may be a issue but that's a perfect circle. 
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It's been a long time, but when I lived back in Starkville, I remember a few storms in January that came out of the Gulf across Midsouth. I remember it was storming, windy, and raining so hard that I almost thought I was in a continuous severe thunderstorm. The problem was it never would stop it lasted all night. It's starting to look like that again, where we'll have severe weather in the southern half of the states, and we might have some heavy rain and strong wind events in the northern half with lots of thunder and lightning. I couldn't tell you what day it was, but I remember sitting working at my computer and thinking I'm in the middle of a small hurricane during one of the storms.
Since we've moved to South Central Texas, where you can't experience this kind of event anymore, I've missed going to sleep during the rain and thunder part of these events. (Not the severe of course.) I'm hoping that we might run into one or two when we move to Northeast Texas. My wife is scared of severe weather, so I told her that we would build a tornado shelter or safe room as soon as we bought another house to live once again on the edge of the severe weather area... what else can you do?
Since we've moved to South Central Texas, where you can't experience this kind of event anymore, I've missed going to sleep during the rain and thunder part of these events. (Not the severe of course.) I'm hoping that we might run into one or two when we move to Northeast Texas. My wife is scared of severe weather, so I told her that we would build a tornado shelter or safe room as soon as we bought another house to live once again on the edge of the severe weather area... what else can you do?
MattPetrulli
Member
Feel like we need to slow down a bit here. Biggest fail mode right now is how far north will warm sector get/will the WF get prematurely stunted? I still stick with my 12/25/12 and 2/23/16 analogs, I feel like the 11/17 type analogs are quite unreasonable at the moment. Completely different system, completely different region, completely different fail modes, completely different warm sector. While yes, this event has potential to be significant, I think we're jumping the gun a bit. Imo I would like to see moisture quality improve a little bit and *MAINLY* the warm front trend more north so the warm sector isn't stunted.
Good post, I think I look at how things might go in the worst direction lol thankfully I'm not a TV meteorologists or anything or I'd be fired. It's always good to have a devil's advocate.
KevinH
Member
It could go either way, you know how Dixie is, LOL! We have all seen events that looked significant a few days out and even the day of and nothing. We have also seen the opposite.
Im still watching though. if I remember correctly, it has been a minute since my area has seen a significant event (EF4, March 3, 2019 - Lee Co, AL)
Newest MMFS run. A bit more linear this go round.
Timhsv
Member
Incredible kinematics with the Tuesday/Wednesday system. 70-75knt LLJ . I think the 0-1km SRH at 06ZWed 25 is nearly 725 to 885 near Bham on the fcast sounding.
Don't know how I feel this morning about the weather situation, it could bust , but also could be significant. It's up in the air at this point. Guess will have to watch model trends
