SBCAPE at 18z on the 06z nam and GFS for southeast Texas. 
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Look at the newest cips analog guidance, previous analogs and forecast guidance shows this only be a south of i20 corridor threat. Matches well with current forecast. I'f a threat is to materialize. I'll check the top analogs and have a looksy. 
Most top analogs don't favor a severe event. With only one having a decent amount of storm reports (12/24/2002)
I still think the 02/23/2016 and 12/25/2012 analogues are pretty good ones, even if they are not showing up on there.
Definitely a identical tracks
I smell a bust coming lol, no way the warm sector makes it north of south Alabama lol, albeit the threat In south Alabama should be pretty potent.
KevinH
Member
And now that is EXACTLY what is going to happen because you said it won’t.
Don’t play with Dixie, you know how ridiculously temperamental it is!!!!!!!!
MattPetrulli
Member
I’m beginning to have a lot of doubts of the warm sector making it far north and if it does it may not be until the middle of the night if at all
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
I don’t believe the warm sector will get far enough north either. I second the bust!
18z nam run is coming in currently, let's see what it says it should be in semi range now Of Alabama.
KevinH
Member
I am taking notes of everyone who is doubting the warm sector and calling for a bust. If the warm sector some how ends up moving north, (and/or the system possibly poses a more substantial threat), I am going to crack up. LOL!!!!! I am not a MET by any means but I LIVE here. This is ****DIXIE ALLEY**** and you know Dixie doesn’t always play by the “rules” and does surprising things (sometimes at the last minute).
KevinH
Member
Post pics, GIFs, videos if/when you can lol
I agree, I think there's still time for some major shifts, hopefully not we should get a better picture once this run completes.
Still a potent atmosphere if a northward shift is not realized. All it really takes is one devastating tornado to make it a very bad day.
RollTide18
Member
Hopefully the warm front stays even further south, we need a break from severe weather
In other notes Kevin, you have potential for a few severe storms spin up tornadoes in your neck of the woods or near it tommorow lol, and also based on the 18z hrrr run the possibility of a few snow showers that won't stick to the ground could be possible near the bham area lol.
KevinH
Member
Lol the 18z nams warm sector is worse than the globals atleast in Mississippi. If your looking for tornadoes you might wanna take a trip to the beach haha
Lol I think it's time to look ahead to other weather events haha, this has turned into a poo poo major event. More and likely Got a Gulf hugging warm front.
KevinH
Member
I think it may be too early to say this is a bust :/ Like you said, there is still time for changes. Dixie can flip on ya without warning.
