Nws mobile sounds pretty bullish saying things look like it'll be a widespread severe weather event in there jurisdiction... And that instability is very likely under modeled.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
- Moderator
- #262
The point soundings found inland on the GFS/NAM are very dangerous. Nice CAPE profile and highly sheared. Both have a significant tornado threat.
Just a tidbit, the Mississippi Alabama And Florida coastal regions have never had a f4/ef4 or higher in recorded history. Not saying it will be changed with this event. But a interesting fact; seems like further south you go the less likely a significant tornado will occur, this events environment will give it a possibility considering how ripe it could be.
Becoming worried for a possible short lived stronger tornado potential near the Panama City region. *FOR TOMMOROW MORNING*
Very sneaky environment albeit still a semi line not isolated.
Very sneaky environment albeit still a semi line not isolated.
Rain mass has killed the chances of any strong storms in you area today Kevin lol
Gulf shores/ orange beach area
Some of the 3km nam updraft tracks are fairly strong when this thing starts skirting the Gulf Coast. 3km Nam starting to get in range
What's this huge kink in the line? Seems like this could promote a break in line for the small coastal warm sector 
RollTide18
Member
I know it’s the long range NAM but STPs basically hug the Mobile/Baldwin counties and the Panhandle.
KevinH
Member
Good. I wasn’t worried about today and I have things to do lol
KevinH
Member
Can we see?
Doesn't correlate to a tornado on the ground but gives a good idea on the possibility of stronger updrafts
KevinH
Member
If this sounding is PDS, I have to imagine it equates to 15% hatched given how they have ONLY stuck with a slight risk for the current D3 outlook
Looks like the line breaks and supercells for a brief time fire and have there own space in the small warm sector.
Oh buddy. Some pretty decent slowing on the 15z RAP. 18z hrrr coming in now have a look at it in a second
I have feeling things may get a bit wonky in close range HRRR and wrf runs oof. Gotta watch trends
KevinH
Member
Wonky?
Minor changes that could lead to less or more impactful for certain areas
