Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Nws mobile sounds pretty bullish saying things look like it'll be a widespread severe weather event in there jurisdiction... And that instability is very likely under modeled.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The point soundings found inland on the GFS/NAM are very dangerous. Nice CAPE profile and highly sheared. Both have a significant tornado threat.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just a tidbit, the Mississippi Alabama And Florida coastal regions have never had a f4/ef4 or higher in recorded history. Not saying it will be changed with this event. But a interesting fact; seems like further south you go the less likely a significant tornado will occur, this events environment will give it a possibility considering how ripe it could be.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Becoming worried for a possible short lived stronger tornado potential near the Panama City region. *FOR TOMMOROW MORNING*

Very sneaky environment albeit still a semi line not isolated.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Rain mass has killed the chances of any strong storms in you area today Kevin lol

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gulf shores/ orange beach area

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Some of the 3km nam updraft tracks are fairly strong when this thing starts skirting the Gulf Coast. 3km Nam starting to get in range

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What's this huge kink in the line? Seems like this could promote a break in line for the small coastal warm sector

 

[RollTide18]

Some of the 3km nam updraft tracks are fairly strong when this thing starts skirting the Gulf Coast. 3km Nam starting to get in range

I know it’s the long range NAM but STPs basically hug the Mobile/Baldwin counties and the Panhandle.

 

[KevinH]

Rain mass has killed the chances of any strong storms in you area today Kevin lol

Good. I wasn’t worried about today and I have things to do lol

 

[KevinH]

Some of the 3km nam updraft tracks are fairly strong when this thing starts skirting the Gulf Coast. 3km Nam starting to get in range

Can we see?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Can we see?

Doesn't correlate to a tornado on the ground but gives a good idea on the possibility of stronger updrafts

 

[KevinH]

If this sounding is PDS, I have to imagine it equates to 15% hatched given how they have ONLY stuck with a slight risk for the current D3 outlook

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like the line breaks and supercells for a brief time fire and have there own space in the small warm sector.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh buddy. Some pretty decent slowing on the 15z RAP. 18z hrrr coming in now have a look at it in a second

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I have feeling things may get a bit wonky in close range HRRR and wrf runs oof. Gotta watch trends

 

[KevinH]

I have feeling things may get a bit wonky in close range HRRR and wrf runs oof. Gotta watch trends

Wonky?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wonky?

Minor changes that could lead to less or more impactful for certain areas