Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[Taylor Campbell]

After yesterday and today’s models, the guidance looks like it's finding consensus that the warm sector will advance inland across the coastal regions of TX, LA, MS, AL and the FL Panhandle. The parameter set being modeled within this sector supports a significant severe risk including the possibility of strong tornadoes.

 

[KevinH]

After yesterday and today’s models look like we are finding consensus that the warm sector will advance inland across the coastal regions of TX, LA, MS, AL and the FL Panhandle. The parameter set being modeled within this sector supports a significant severe risk including the possibility of strong tornadoes.

Now we see whats going to happen!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Now we see whats going to happen!

It'd be a pretty small warm sector but it's possible I'm not going to bet on it. But it'd be confined to the coastal regions if materialized like Taylor says.

 

[UK_EF4]

Regardless of warm sector size and storm mode, we are most likely going to have a very dangerous tornadic QLCS, moving through populated areas, after dark, with the chance of a missing radar site. Really not great and makes me worry what could happen. As we all know by now these lines, especially with such strong shear, can easily produce very large numbers of tornadoes, including strong ones - some even producing 50+ tornadoes in the past. Not to say that anything of that sort will definitely happen but given previous track history's of highly sheared lines in Dixie Alley, I am definitely worried.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Regardless of warm sector size and storm mode, we are most likely going to have a very dangerous tornadic QLCS, moving through populated areas, after dark, with the chance of a missing radar site. Really not great and makes me worry what could happen. As we all know by now these lines, especially with such strong shear, can easily produce very large numbers of tornadoes, including strong ones - some even producing 50+ tornadoes in the past. Not to say that anything of that sort will definitely happen but given previous track history's of highly sheared lines in Dixie Alley, I am definitely worried.

Good point, I think north of the coastal regions it'll be hard to get any QCLS tornadoes unless there a sliver of SBCAPE being sucked into the low that spins up can use. Lol could be a bonafide triple point that runs almost the entire Gulf coastline hahaha


Kindve intriguing to think about lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Could it be possible we just have one or two potentially tornadic storms running the coastline lol? I'm really interested now. the environment is phenomenal there, *correction the instability isn't phenomal but a lot of other stuff is lol*

 

[warneagle]

Could it be possible we just have one or two potentially tornadic storms running the coastline lol? I'm really interested now. the environment is phenomenal there, *correction the instability isn't phenomal but a lot of other stuff is lol*

Yeah 12/25/12 really does come to mind in that respect. It only takes one or two.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah 12/25/12 really does come to mind in that respect. It only takes one or two.

I wish they're was a data base with ease of access to looking at parameters or say hrrr runs. You almost have to scrounge around especially with events prior to the 2000s. SPC storms reports used to have a parameters sections on the observation tab in the storm report page but took it off.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Kindve uncanny similarities to this event and 12/25/12 now that I look at it closely. Maybe following guidance from this event some would be a good idea.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Thought I should mention this but theres a 2% tornado risk late tonight early morning along the Gulf Coast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'd keep a eye near Panama City tommorow morning sneaky good parameters there. Storms/supercells riding a boundary (warm front)...

 

[MattPetrulli]

Kindve uncanny similarities to this event and 12/25/12 now that I look at it closely. Maybe following guidance from this event some would be a good idea.

WF was able to make it far more inland on 12/25/12 and 2/23/16. Not really a good analog here off top of my head. 12/25/12's downfall was storm mode, whereas this one may be WF hugging the coast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

WF was able to make it far more inland on 12/25/12 and 2/23/16. Not really a good analog here off top of my head. 12/25/12's downfall was storm mode, whereas this one may be WF hugging the coast.

Triple point Gulf hugger 50 miles inland lol?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Huh... Well I'll be Gulf shores, I guess you want to show out. @MattPetrulli hey there might only be room for one tornadic storm but it'll make the best out of it hahah.

One heck of a sounding very good low level instability and shear.

Sounding from orange beach Florida below

 

[KevinH]

Huh... Well I'll be Gulf shores, I guess you want to show out. @MattPetrulli hey there might only be room for one tornadic storm but it'll make the best out of it hahah.

One heck of a sounding very good low level instability and shear. View attachment 17077View attachment 17078

Sounding from orange beach Florida below
View attachment 17079

Good grief. You never see these soundings this far south.

Also FYI, Orange Beach is in Alabama (riiiiiiight on the AL/FL border)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief. You never see these soundings this far south.

Also FYI, Orange Beach is in Alabama (riiiiiiight on the AL/FL border)

Probably gunna see the highest close threat area to the Gulf we've ever seen haha, if models continue

 

[KevinH]

Probably gunna see the highest close threat area to the Gulf we've ever seen haha, if models continue

In JANUARY…. So freaking weird. Can’t wait for the next update

 

[MattPetrulli]

Huh... Well I'll be Gulf shores, I guess you want to show out. @MattPetrulli hey there might only be room for one tornadic storm but it'll make the best out of it hahah.

One heck of a sounding very good low level instability and shear. View attachment 17077View attachment 17078

Sounding from orange beach Florida below
View attachment 17079

North trend still really possible this far out. If solution like NAM panned out there would be an isolated strong tornado threat from TX to FL. I can't really remember a system like this off the top of my head, if WF advances north and has a solid warm sector, pending warm sector, 12/25/12 would be a good analog then. NAM solution would be extremely weird though I can't really think of analogs, would really like some people to chime in to get analogs.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

North trend still really possible this far out. If solution like NAM panned out there would be an isolated strong tornado threat from TX to FL. I can't really remember a system like this off the top of my head, if WF advances north and has a solid warm sector, pending warm sector, 12/25/12 would be a good analog then. NAM solution would be extremely weird though I can't really think of analogs, would really like some people to chime in to get analogs.

Neither can I lol, it'll be the weirdest SPC risk area.

There's a lot of different interactions with this possiblity. Sea breeze..? Mahybe, cold front warm front and frontal trough along with a pressure falls all centering around the immediate Gulf Coast. A smorgasbord haha

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah I just searched through a ton of spc risk outlooks for the south none where confined to the Gulf Coast, those 12/25/2012 and February events are probably your closest in recent memory to this event lol.