Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

UncleJuJu98 said:
Reading through some skip Talbot's chaser blogs on that day. He mentions dynamic lifting can negate some of the lack of instability.

Extreme amounts of dynamic lifting will be available Tuesday. So many little things that can fill in and be sufficient for a weather event. Instability is a form of lift like dynamic lift. But you gotta be rooted at the surface which MMFS shows abundant surface level instability. 1000j of instability will be plenty for this event... 1000j was a similar amount to the November 17 2013 event, both events have similar synoptic details but also have a few differences..

Lol sorry if I post to much guys, I get very excited by the weather, my wife thinks I love the weather more than her hahahah. These are just my ramblings and thoughts, not professional forecasts more so insights or nuggets I see that might make a difference
Click to expand...

I enjoy your “ramblings” and “insights” into these events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just looking around at some of the 18z models. Just noticed theres two lifting mechanisms at 200mb... Divergence and diffluence at the 200mb Uh... Lol.
Purple circle is divergence and the red lines is the diffluence zone from the artic jet and subtropical jet splitting from being merged.
That's what you call a double whammy lol

The vertical motion in the atmosphere is gnarly for this event lol.Screenshot_20230120-192855-110~2.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just looking around at some of the 18z models. Just noticed theres two lifting mechanisms at 200mb... Divergence and diffluence at the 200mb Uh... Lol.
Purple circle is divergence and the red lines is the diffluence zone from the artic jet and subtropical jet splitting from being merged.
That's what you call a double whammy lol

The vertical motion in the atmosphere is gnarly for this event lol.View attachment 17036
Click to expand...
The “uh” in your comment isn’t comforting LOL

GOOD TO KNOW THOUGH! The area you highlighted is the same area the SPC did.

WATCHING LIKE A HAWK.
 
It's been a long time, but when I lived back in Starkville, I remember a few storms in January that came out of the Gulf across Midsouth. I remember it was storming, windy, and raining so hard that I almost thought I was in a continuous severe thunderstorm. The problem was it never would stop it lasted all night. It's starting to look like that again, where we'll have severe weather in the southern half of the states, and we might have some heavy rain and strong wind events in the northern half with lots of thunder and lightning. I couldn't tell you what day it was, but I remember sitting working at my computer and thinking I'm in the middle of a small hurricane during one of the storms.

Since we've moved to South Central Texas, where you can't experience this kind of event anymore, I've missed going to sleep during the rain and thunder part of these events. (Not the severe of course.) I'm hoping that we might run into one or two when we move to Northeast Texas. My wife is scared of severe weather, so I told her that we would build a tornado shelter or safe room as soon as we bought another house to live once again on the edge of the severe weather area... what else can you do?
 
Feel like we need to slow down a bit here. Biggest fail mode right now is how far north will warm sector get/will the WF get prematurely stunted? I still stick with my 12/25/12 and 2/23/16 analogs, I feel like the 11/17 type analogs are quite unreasonable at the moment. Completely different system, completely different region, completely different fail modes, completely different warm sector. While yes, this event has potential to be significant, I think we're jumping the gun a bit. Imo I would like to see moisture quality improve a little bit and *MAINLY* the warm front trend more north so the warm sector isn't stunted.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Feel like we need to slow down a bit here. Biggest fail mode right now is how far north will warm sector get/will the WF get prematurely stunted? I still stick with my 12/25/12 and 2/23/16 analogs, I feel like the 11/17 type analogs are quite unreasonable at the moment. Completely different system, completely different region, completely different fail modes, completely different warm sector. While yes, this event has potential to be significant, I think we're jumping the gun a bit. Imo I would like to see moisture quality improve a little bit and *MAINLY* the warm front trend more north so the warm sector isn't stunted.
Click to expand...
Good post, I think I look at how things might go in the worst direction lol thankfully I'm not a TV meteorologists or anything or I'd be fired. It's always good to have a devil's advocate.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Feel like we need to slow down a bit here. Biggest fail mode right now is how far north will warm sector get/will the WF get prematurely stunted? I still stick with my 12/25/12 and 2/23/16 analogs, I feel like the 11/17 type analogs are quite unreasonable at the moment. Completely different system, completely different region, completely different fail modes, completely different warm sector. While yes, this event has potential to be significant, I think we're jumping the gun a bit. Imo I would like to see moisture quality improve a little bit and *MAINLY* the warm front trend more north so the warm sector isn't stunted.
Click to expand...
It could go either way, you know how Dixie is, LOL! We have all seen events that looked significant a few days out and even the day of and nothing. We have also seen the opposite.

Im still watching though. if I remember correctly, it has been a minute since my area has seen a significant event (EF4, March 3, 2019 - Lee Co, AL)
 
850wh.us_se.png

Incredible kinematics with the Tuesday/Wednesday system. 70-75knt LLJ . I think the 0-1km SRH at 06ZWed 25 is nearly 725 to 885 near Bham on the fcast sounding.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top