Hate to be that guy... But let's hold down the debate on outbreak vs. nonoutbreaks in another thread post and lets highlight what this thread is really about here.
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Please stop.As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
The Tombigbee River Basin runs through there.to Mobile and the topography changes along the Alabama state line.A theory I've had for a while is that there is more warm moist air available in East Miss and Alabama for these storms to tap into due to the shorter more Northerly Gulf coastline. When you have those southerlies, its closer to the warm pool of water in the Northern Gulf. Its one of those perfect landscape transition zones. More warm moist air combined with the surface roughness of the forests of E.Miss/W.Bama, and the increasing elevation of the Appalachians all converges into a zone favorable for strong tornadoes to form.
I could be wrong but this is the best theory I've thought of so far to explain the frequency of tornado touchdowns in that region.
Tell us we should ignore you without telling us that we should ignore you. LOLAs I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
As free as you are to make your own analysis (which is something I encourage, if anything) since I am not an expert I like to base my conclusions on studies by people who truly understand the science of meteorology and how the weather actually works. I use this quote from the Tornado Project as an example:As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
It is our feeling that ocean warming, stratospheric warming, jet stream changes, polar ice disappearance, and polar vortex displacement must have at least some influence on tornado activity. None has yet been identified by anyone with certainty.
True, but there will be a fresh narrative then, too.It is ridiculous. Super outbreaks are often generational in nature, so guess we will know the answer in about 2045.
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SMHNAM 3km slows down the system compared to the non-CAM NAM. Below is a sounding north of Tuscaloosa at 00Z Wed from the 12Z run of the 3km.
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