Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[JBishopwx]

Hate to be that guy... But let's hold down the debate on outbreak vs. nonoutbreaks in another thread post and lets highlight what this thread is really about here.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

00z HRRR updraft helicity

 

[andyhb]

As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.

Please stop.

 

[Austin Dawg]

A theory I've had for a while is that there is more warm moist air available in East Miss and Alabama for these storms to tap into due to the shorter more Northerly Gulf coastline. When you have those southerlies, its closer to the warm pool of water in the Northern Gulf. Its one of those perfect landscape transition zones. More warm moist air combined with the surface roughness of the forests of E.Miss/W.Bama, and the increasing elevation of the Appalachians all converges into a zone favorable for strong tornadoes to form.

I could be wrong but this is the best theory I've thought of so far to explain the frequency of tornado touchdowns in that region.

The Tombigbee River Basin runs through there.to Mobile and the topography changes along the Alabama state line.

 

[KevinH]

As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.

Tell us we should ignore you without telling us that we should ignore you. LOL

SMDH

 

[TH2002]

As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.

As free as you are to make your own analysis (which is something I encourage, if anything) since I am not an expert I like to base my conclusions on studies by people who truly understand the science of meteorology and how the weather actually works. I use this quote from the Tornado Project as an example:

It is our feeling that ocean warming, stratospheric warming, jet stream changes, polar ice disappearance, and polar vortex displacement must have at least some influence on tornado activity. None has yet been identified by anyone with certainty.

And as James Spann said, there is no such thing as settled science. ESPECIALLY in the world of meteorology, and I think that's what a lot of people either forget or are afraid to say. Too many people jump to conclusions without doing the least bit of research, or even remotely understanding what they're talking about.

 

[JPWX]

Y'all I just realized that I said 95 contour on the CWASP a few pages back. It was actually 85. Not 95. LOL! Sorry about that. However, the 00z NAM does have a 90 contour CWASP value. I admit this is the first time I've seen a value that high. Also, the latest Significant Tornado Ingredients run is showing a 75 contour.

 

[treypops]

It is ridiculous. Super outbreaks are often generational in nature, so guess we will know the answer in about 2045.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

True, but there will be a fresh narrative then, too.

 

[JBishopwx]

MONDAY:

 

[JBishopwx]

Tuesday:

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Based on what I've seen from 00z and 06z HRRR/NAM3k runs....... convection looks to be very messy. I'm concerned that there may be some storm over-crowding. Also looks to be a lot of early cloud cover which may reduce instability.

IMO.....the SPC left it as an Enhanced risk for all of these reasons.

My gut is telling me to wait on the Tuesday chase in MS/AL.

 

[Clancy]

NAM 3km slows down the system compared to the non-CAM NAM. Below is a sounding north of Tuscaloosa at 00Z Wed from the 12Z run of the 3km.

 

[KevinH]

NAM 3km slows down the system compared to the non-CAM NAM. Below is a sounding north of Tuscaloosa at 00Z Wed from the 12Z run of the 3km.
View attachment 16346

SMH

Not the kind of soundings we like to see….

 

[Former Member 1430]

This is a sounding from middle TN…. Granted it’s not a PDS sounding but I’m not thrilled with what I see here

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[Clancy]

Latest run of the NAM 3km brings in some pretty strong instability well after dark in MS/AL and shows little development in the area until the very end of the run, with storms popping up in the warm sector.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

There may be a few renegade supercells in Mississippi on Tuesday in front of main line in the warm sector.....but everything I've seen so far is making me think this is going to be a powerful QLCS event.

 

[andyhb]

For time of year, the combined potential across all three days (yes, 1/4 could be something closer to the Atlantic coast) is rather significant. Will be driven by anomalously extensive warm sectors as usual with cold season events.

While forecast hodographs and wind fields for the most part are not particularly extreme, this sequence strikes me as one where you have a large expanse of "well-balanced" parameters that could yield quite a few tornadoes depending on storm mode.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

00z HRRR is pretty crazy. Tuesday looks like the day of reckoning. If HRRR sticks to its guns.....I expect a mod risk to be issued on Tuesday.

Also please disregard my comment about the QLCS earlier. Was a little premature. Looks like the squall line recycles into a discrete storm mode.
Sort of reminds me of the December 14th event. Squall line stalled out and a supercell factory formed in South MS.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Also Monday evening in NW MS Delta looks to have some decent potential.

Glad I listened to my gut and didn't get a hotel in Shreveport. I was very close to booking a room at the Horseshoe Casino in Bossier City yesterday.