Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[KevinH]

Latest D2 brings SLGT eastwards.

The ENH area was also shifted eastward with the afternoons D2 update compared to the D2 from this morning (below). I noticed because I live juuuust a hair to the east of the updated ENH area. Will be interesting to see if there are any shifts or upgrades.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

That instability though!! Wow. I was thinking 1500-2000 based on model output, but it is up to 3000.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch issued, but it's 20/10 probs?

 

[JBishopwx]

Tornado watch issued, but it's 20/10 probs?

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
through the afternoon over the watch area, with a few storms likely
intensifying to severe levels. Damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main threats. The risk is expected to persist
well into the night across much of this area.

 

[TornadoFan]

That was a weird glitch.

 

[KevinH]

The link for TOR WW1 on Twitter brought up a weird error. The date said Dec 2021, but they have since fixed it so ignore the circled date lol

 

[KevinH]

Next D1 update should be issued within 15 minutes or so.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like some of the old data from the first watch of 2022 initially got pulled over to the first watch of 2023.

 

[JPWX]

Looks like some of the old data from the first watch of 2022 initially got pulled over to the first watch of 2023.

I had the same thing happen to me last year with first watch from 21 being pulled over 22.

 

[JPWX]

12z 3km NAM at 29 hours for Northwest Monroe County MS.

 

[Clancy]

15Z SREF's STI pops a tiny 75 corridor in C. AL at 09Z on Wednesday. Not practically important but an interesting find.

 

[KevinH]

15Z SREF's STI pops a tiny 75 corridor in C. AL at 09Z on Wednesday. Not practically important but an interesting find.

View attachment 16389

If I am doing my math correctly, this is for 09Z, or 4AM ET Wednesday right?

 

[Clancy]

If I am doing my math correctly, this is for 09Z, or 4AM ET Wednesday right?

You've got it right

Edit: If you're ever unsure, this site's super straightforward and includes figures demonstrating zone time differences from GMT: https://time.is/GMT

 

[JPWX]

12z 3km NAM valid at 3pm tomorrow along with a sounding near Amory, MS

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC strongly considering a new WW further west of the initial one, covering more of OK and north Texas.

Looks like we already had one tornado warning come and go. That cell is currently severe-thunderstorm warned west of Brookeland, TX.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12z 3km NAM valid at 3pm tomorrow along with a sounding near Amory, MS
View attachment 16390View attachment 16391

145 3CAPE and none of the veer-backing apparent in today's soundings...that's trouble.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Tornado warning also out near Paris, AR. Here we go...

 

[JPWX]

18z 3km NAM valid at 29 hours (5pm Tuesday) and the sounding valid at the same time over Southeast Monroe County

 

[cincywx]

Tornado warning also out near Paris, AR. Here we go...

may have been a brief and weak touchdown on that one. does not appear to know how to maintain itself at this time.