Shelter Tech

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

Fred Gossage

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CIPS analog guidance is hitting this one kind of hard for this far out. I will note that this is the first event of the entire cool season so far with an established offshore subtropical ridge that's not being pinched by offshore trough digging. That alone means the warm sector is very likely to extend farther north/east than any of the previous systems the past two months.
 

KevinH

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321790517_554519992922987_4846862065714907917_n.png

CIPS analog guidance is hitting this one kind of hard for this far out. I will note that this is the first event of the entire cool season so far with an established offshore subtropical ridge that's not being pinched by offshore trough digging. That alone means the warm sector is very likely to extend farther north/east than any of the previous systems the past two months.
So in other words, KEEP WATCHING and don’t be surprised if the SPC ends up highlighting these days.
 

UK_EF4

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Here are 4 box-soundings from the main global models (ECM, GDPS, GFS and UKMET)

Even without excluding thermodynamics, each profile is pretty favourable for severe storms + tornadoes in itself (though ECM perhaps a little funky with what looks to be a slightly elevated profile? - though too much detail for one hypothetical sounding at this range). When just looking at wind profiles, they are very favourable. ECM is almost that classic 'Dixie Alley' Tornado outbreak hodograph (not that anyone is expecting that at this stage). Then factoring into account the cool bias of models we have seen in the last two months, with both events uptrending instability wise as we got closer to the event, I am beginning to get slightly concerned. Obviously a lot of times for thing to change, but as a preliminary look this possible event definitely seems worth keeping an eye on.

Edit: UKMET sounding doesn't seem to have loaded unfortunately :(

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Here are 4 box-soundings from the main global models (ECM, GDPS, GFS and UKMET)

Even without excluding thermodynamics, each profile is pretty favourable for severe storms + tornadoes in itself (though ECM perhaps a little funky with what looks to be a slightly elevated profile? - though too much detail for one hypothetical sounding at this range). When just looking at wind profiles, they are very favourable. ECM is almost that classic 'Dixie Alley' Tornado outbreak hodograph (not that anyone is expecting that at this stage). Then factoring into account the cool bias of models we have seen in the last two months, with both events uptrending instability wise as we got closer to the event, I am beginning to get slightly concerned. Obviously a lot of times for thing to change, but as a preliminary look this possible event definitely seems worth keeping an eye on.

Edit: UKMET sounding doesn't seem to have loaded unfortunately :(

View attachment 16221 View attachment 16222 View attachment 16223
Thats some pretty
Nasty hodos there…. Large day 6 threat being show. This morning ….risk zone is well placed this far … large healthy warm sector getting up into the Ohio valley
 

JBishopwx

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Think @JPWX mentioned in one of the other threads, but will also be a heavy rainfall threat also. wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_se.jpg
 
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In today’s warming climate (higher NHEM SSTs) it will be difficult to get broad low-amplitude troughs vs. previous decades. So that will be a cap.

We are still getting them....in the last few years though they just seem to be coming in the winter instead of the spring.

18Z GFS has the surface low at 981 MB on the KS/CO border at 00Z 1/3 (6 PM CST 1/2)...could be another significant blizzard for parts of MT/WY/CO/SD/NE, meanwhile we here in the upper Midwest will be solidly into the warm sector with rain showers obliterating what snowpack we were able to build up throughout December.

Furthermore, the run has mid-50s dewpoints as far north as the southern half of Wisconsin and Lower Michigan at 12Z 1/3, although the system is occluding by that point and the cold front quickly sweeps through before peak heating. A lot of details yet to be hashed out, but this has the looks of a very high-ceiling setup. Per my first sentence in this post, it's fortunate this isn't April or May, given that very wide warm sector with pretty much unimpeded access to Gulf moisture.
 
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Rather large 15% area maintained for Monday (Day 5...text incorrectly says Day 4 at least as the outlook was initially issued in case they correct it later). Still too much uncertainty to add a 30% contour or highlight an area for Tuesday.
 
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