So in other words, KEEP WATCHING and don’t be surprised if the SPC ends up highlighting these days.
CIPS analog guidance is hitting this one kind of hard for this far out. I will note that this is the first event of the entire cool season so far with an established offshore subtropical ridge that's not being pinched by offshore trough digging. That alone means the warm sector is very likely to extend farther north/east than any of the previous systems the past two months.
Thats some prettyHere are 4 box-soundings from the main global models (ECM, GDPS, GFS and UKMET)
Even without excluding thermodynamics, each profile is pretty favourable for severe storms + tornadoes in itself (though ECM perhaps a little funky with what looks to be a slightly elevated profile? - though too much detail for one hypothetical sounding at this range). When just looking at wind profiles, they are very favourable. ECM is almost that classic 'Dixie Alley' Tornado outbreak hodograph (not that anyone is expecting that at this stage). Then factoring into account the cool bias of models we have seen in the last two months, with both events uptrending instability wise as we got closer to the event, I am beginning to get slightly concerned. Obviously a lot of times for thing to change, but as a preliminary look this possible event definitely seems worth keeping an eye on.
Edit: UKMET sounding doesn't seem to have loaded unfortunately
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In today’s warming climate (higher NHEM SSTs) it will be difficult to get broad low-amplitude troughs vs. previous decades. So that will be a cap.Yeah, a 30% in future outlooks looks inevitable. There was enough confidence to add it in this morning’s forecast package.
In today’s warming climate (higher NHEM SSTs) it will be difficult to get broad low-amplitude troughs vs. previous decades. So that will be a cap.