Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[tennessee storm chaser]

Rather large 15% area maintained for Monday (Day 5...text incorrectly says Day 4 at least as the outlook was initially issued in case they correct it later). Still too much uncertainty to add a 30% contour or highlight an area for Tuesday.

Sounds like they are heading toward s 30 percent area , considered it also. Guess want to see the model suits today . Look for a 30 percent risk out out in the morning for a day 4 risk .

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, check out the confluence bands on reflectivity products and the girth of the warm sector. Regardless of the discrepancies of the mid level trough between the GFS and EURO, they and the other models along with individual ensemble member trends have the best parameters focused across the Arklatex region to the MS river.

Edit: @WesL can we please get this thread pinned to the top. Thank you.

 

[JPWX]

Here's the 6z GFS CWASP for the early week threat. A large 95 contour over east Texas. NAM isn't within range yet.

Also, I found this website last Spring. It has helped me a lot with long range severe weather forecasting.

Extended Range Severe Weather Environment Forecasts

atlas.niu.edu

 

[KevinH]

Here's the 6z GFS CWASP for the early week threat. A large 95 contour over east Texas. NAM isn't within range yet.

Also, I found this website last Spring. It has helped me a lot with long range severe weather forecasting.

Extended Range Severe Weather Environment Forecasts

atlas.niu.edu

View attachment 16238

Yeah that can’t be good this far out. I don’t think I have ever seen 95%. Hopefully things will quiet down by then

 

[Casuarina Head]

Yeah that can’t be good this far out. I don’t think I have ever seen 95%. Hopefully things will quiet down by then

The D5 range is arguably good news at this point: the absolute probabilities + aerial coverage are likely to be overdone by a goodly amount. Significant downward shifts are well within the expected margin of error at this range. If models continue to show a broad-based, low-amplitude trough and a correspondingly large warm sector within two (maybe three) days, then I would be willing to countenance a high-end “ceiling.” But right now confidence is far too low and the potential for a bust on the low end or “base” is considerable.

Edit: The past seven EPS means have definitely trended toward a shorter wavelength with possible VBV issues. The surface low will end up being occluded, the mid levels “pinched off,” the low-level flow messier. There is too much high-latitude blocking...a product of the very warm mid-to-high-latitude SSTs that we have been seeing over the past year and in general over the past few decades, as a function of global warming.

 

[Edith]

The D5 range is arguably good news at this point: the absolute probabilities + aerial coverage are likely to be overdone by a goodly amount. Significant downward shifts are well within the expected margin of error at this range. If models continue to show a broad-based, low-amplitude trough and a correspondingly large warm sector within two (maybe three) days, then I would be willing to countenance a high-end “ceiling.” But right now confidence is far too low and the potential for a bust on the low end or “base” is considerable.

I personally second this statement. I will be more impressed if this holds 2-3 days from the event

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow!

 

[MattW]

Here's the 6z GFS CWASP for the early week threat. A large 95 contour over east Texas. NAM isn't within range yet.

Also, I found this website last Spring. It has helped me a lot with long range severe weather forecasting.

Extended Range Severe Weather Environment Forecasts

atlas.niu.edu

*IMAGE REMOVED FOR QUOTED POST BREVITY*

Slightly off-topic, but can you share how to get to those maps from the provided link?

 

[UK_EF4]

NWS Shreveport mentions upgrade to Enhanced-Moderate possible, as well as the risk of "Major Severe Weather"

 

[Casuarina Head]

The D5 range is arguably good news at this point: the absolute probabilities + aerial coverage are likely to be overdone by a goodly amount. Significant downward shifts are well within the expected margin of error at this range. If models continue to show a broad-based, low-amplitude trough and a correspondingly large warm sector within two (maybe three) days, then I would be willing to countenance a high-end “ceiling.” But right now confidence is far too low and the potential for a bust on the low end or “base” is considerable.

Edit: The past seven EPS means have definitely trended toward a shorter wavelength with possible VBV issues. The surface low will end up being occluded, the mid levels “pinched off,” the low-level flow messier. There is too much high-latitude blocking...a product of the very warm mid-to-high-latitude SSTs that we have been seeing over the past year and in general over the past few decades, as a function of global warming.

^ This illustration serves to prove my point. As we come closer in time, the EPS mean trends toward a higher-amplitude, “blockier” solution that is much less conducive to widespread discrete production. This has been happening often since the well-known, decade-long tornado “drought” began in 2012–13. (Coincidentally or not, this also coincided with the gradual shift to a -AMOC in the Atlantic basin, owing to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which also has resulted in generally less intense Atlantic TC seasons vs. 1995–2010.) Global warming has led to warmer SSTs in the mid latitudes that promote the formation of split flow and thus lower the frequency of large-scale tornado outbreaks in general, especially during the springtime. So even during such “ideal” severe setups as robust -ENSO/-PDO one sees “El Niño”-like disruptive influences in a warmer climate.

 

[JBishopwx]

Monday:

 

[JBishopwx]

Tuesday:

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Whats up James. I finally created a username for Talk Weather . Thanks for showing me this place.

 

[Clancy]

Certainly doesn't appear as though this system will have any shortages of instability and moisture.

 

[WesL]

Oh. Gotcha.

Sometimes that happens when I'm at work. Corporate firewalls sometimes block the traffic of some images. Those in question were hosted by facebook.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

A very expansive warm sector and low level jet showing on several models.

Taylor you gonna drive over to the Delta and meet up with me again? I'm probably targeting South Arkansas Delta this time.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Sometimes that happens when I'm at work. Corporate firewalls sometimes block the traffic of some images. Those in question were hosted by facebook.

That explains it. I wasn't at work, but I have a bunch of privacy settings on my home computer configured so that Facebook can't communicate with other websites.

 

[UK_EF4]

Um... wow.

Picked a UKMET 12z sounding and was surprised to see a very favourable environment depicted here. Still lacking model agreement, and UKMET is currently only model depicting this exact setup. But hypothetically if this environment were to come off, we would have a problem. Luckily of course that is not the case right now, but this does show the potential high ceiling to this event.

 

[KevinH]

Um... wow.

Picked a UKMET 12z sounding and was surprised to see a very favourable environment depicted here. Still lacking model agreement, and UKMET is currently only model depicting this exact setup. But hypothetically if this environment were to come off, we would have a problem. Luckily of course that is not the case right now, but this does show the potential high ceiling to this event.

Where was this sounding taken?

 

[UK_EF4]

Where was this sounding taken?

Forgot to mention! I edited the map back into the post sorry