• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

Edith

Member
Messages
84
Reaction score
176
Location
Tennessee
As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
I agree with your aforementioned analysis
 

JBishopwx

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
867
Reaction score
1,936
Location
Ackerman, MS
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
Regardless, if a EF-3 tornado struck someone in Dixie, a large amount of life could be lost. Long track or not.
 
Messages
2,753
Reaction score
4,292
Location
Madison, WI
nam_2022123112_078_32.26--88.27.png

Sounding from Meridian, Mississippi area for Tuesday afternoon.

You found the one PDS sounding, nice. Although in practice the SHARPpy algorithm doesn't appear to be of much value in actually differentiating significant tornado environments from what I've observed over the last few years.

That shear profile/hodograph actually look better for tornadoes than the ones for Monday, after a lot of straight-line hodographs on the GFS soundings on previous runs valid for Tuesday.
 
Messages
2,753
Reaction score
4,292
Location
Madison, WI
Actually, maybe I was wrong about the 700-500mb veer-backing being the one that causes problems for supercell maintenance (perhaps it's lower down than that). I'm watching Trey Greenwood's videos on the killer tornadoes of 2022, and the Des Moines sounding near the Winterset EF4 showed a similar amount of veer-backing in that layer. Look at 18:02.

 
Messages
299
Reaction score
861
Location
Oxford, Mississippi
Yall watch.....Tuesday will prob end up being the day of reckoning....and I can't chase it because of first day back to work after a long vacation. Deep down you all know that's prob what will happen.

There's some voodoo in East MS and Alabama that models can't foresee. Storms always start showing some unexplainable behavior once they cross into that zone.
 

KevinH

Member
Messages
1,710
Reaction score
2,681
Location
West Central GA
In the immediate time frame, definitely not something to sleep on for MS/AL/GA. We all know how Deep South winter events can behave.
That’s true and why I am paying CLOSE attention. I am right on the AL/GA border in W Cntrl GA…

Let me find out that slight risk shifts east and/or is increased….
 

Austin Dawg

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
852
Reaction score
1,299
Location
Leander, Texas
Yall watch.....Tuesday will prob end up being the day of reckoning....and I can't chase it because of first day back to work after a long vacation. Deep down you all know that's prob what will happen.

There's some voodoo in East MS and Alabama that models can't foresee. Storms always start showing some unexplainable behavior once they cross into that zone.
There is something in those counties all along the Alabama state line that you just can't put your finger on, but somehow they always have storms that change as soon as they enter the county. They also seem to ratchet it up just a notch once they get in Alabama. I personally remember seeing several storms intensify once they left Itawamba or Monroe County and pass the Alabama line, or hearing about storm damage in Alabama the next day. It happens all the way along Highway 45 down south of West Point as well.
 
Messages
299
Reaction score
861
Location
Oxford, Mississippi
There is something in those counties all along the Alabama state line that you just can't put your finger on, but somehow they always have storms that change as soon as they enter the county. They also seem to ratchet it up just a notch once they get in Alabama. I personally remember seeing several storms intensify once they left Itawamba or Monroe County and pass the Alabama line, or hearing about storm damage in Alabama the next day. It happens all the way along Highway 45 down south of West Point as well.
A theory I've had for a while is that there is more warm moist air available in East Miss and Alabama for these storms to tap into due to the shorter more Northerly Gulf coastline. When you have those southerlies, its closer to the warm pool of water in the Northern Gulf. Its one of those perfect landscape transition zones. More warm moist air combined with the surface roughness of the forests of E.Miss/W.Bama, and the increasing elevation of the Appalachians all converges into a zone favorable for strong tornadoes to form.

I could be wrong but this is the best theory I've thought of so far to explain the frequency of tornado touchdowns in that region.
 
Messages
299
Reaction score
861
Location
Oxford, Mississippi
Just got done looking at 18z GFS and 18z NAM. I think I'm going to sit out Monday and try to get out of work early Tuesday to chase Mississippi.

Still waiting to get into HRRR range, but as of now Monday just doesn't look substantial enough to make that long drive to ArkLaTex.
 
Messages
2,753
Reaction score
4,292
Location
Madison, WI
Just got done looking at 18z GFS and 18z NAM. I think I'm going to sit out Monday and try to get out of work early Tuesday to chase Mississippi.

Still waiting to get into HRRR range, but as of now Monday just doesn't look substantial enough to make that long drive to ArkLaTex.

It's looking like another event that ramps up after dark over there, despite the parameters in place Tuesday afternoon over eastern TX.
 

Jacob

Member
Messages
1,287
Reaction score
824
Location
Roy, UT
As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.

Haven’t you been a broken record about this for the past couple years?

The events you are describing are extremely infrequent to begin with. Trying to ascribe one single reason why it’s been a few years since the last “super outbreak” is ridiculous.
 
Messages
150
Reaction score
204
Location
Flowery Branch, GA
HAM Callsign
KM4JKH
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Haven’t you been a broken record about this for the past couple years?

The events you are describing are extremely infrequent to begin with. Trying to ascribe one single reason why it’s been a few years since the last “super outbreak” is ridiculous.

It is ridiculous. Super outbreaks are often generational in nature, so guess we will know the answer in about 2045.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

pohnpei

Member
Messages
958
Reaction score
1,949
Location
shanghai
As I stated previously, I think that large-scale outbreaks with multiple, long-tracked EF3+ tornado families are (mostly) of the past. In a warming climate the significant events that do occur will tend to be more localised, isolated, and/or shorter-lived. In general, it will be quite difficult to get events like the past Super Outbreaks, Palm Sunday, Super Tuesday, etc. until the global climate shifts into a cooler state. Since 2012 very few events have come close to the major outbreaks of the past, other than Easter 2020 and 10–11 December 2021, the latter of which did feature classic, long-lived EF3+ families but was more geographically restricted than some of the other big events that I mentioned.
According to Grazulis, Easter can ranked No.7 of all outbreaks since 1950 and the overall sig tornado paths of Dec10 was even higher than Easter, even higher than 5/31/1985. If outbreaks of these magnitude can't satisfied your definition of truly major outbreak and was classified as geographicly restricted then how many outbreaks in history meet with your definition in the history? I can only assume that years like 2011 exerted a wrong impression on you.
 
Back
Top