ashtonlemleywx
Member
SPC is always on the fence about something. Last week was on the fence about instability and we see how that turned out.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
The 19th systems storm mode will depend on how tight the low is. Wind profiles support more of a discreet storms mode than linear on the 19th. But unless those winds back which is kindve hard with a huge "untight" low pressure over Arkansas it'll stay a damaging wind threat. But we will see lot of time for it to change.
JPWX
Member
Yeah last Thursday's threat was only suppose to be a damaging wind threat with only a few isolated tornadoes. Now, I'm not criticizing SPC or anyone, but you have to look at every aspect other than instability. We know here in Dixie Alley that you can have big outbreaks with less than 1000 CAPE and strong wind shear. Not keep saying lack of instability will be the main limiting factor for a more robust threat.
Wow. 12z euro is close to have a classic Miller A snowstorm for the south on the 22nd... May have to make a thread eventually.
Would Like to see consensus between the GFS and euro though
Would Like to see consensus between the GFS and euro though
Huh. 
just a fun average sounding in south Mississippi for mid january, you know nothing special...
- Thread starter
- #89
KevinH
Member
Pics? GIFs?
PeaksAndValleys
Member
How bad does it look?
For the cold core setup in the Midwest or the southeast one?
Robust sounding, storms will be flirting with being rooted at the surface and elevated though atleast with this sounding limiting tornado threat.
Good point here by Tony.
With @UK_EF4 posts earlier your probably gunna have a pretty darn good setup somewhere between Louisiana and Alabama some Arkansas Tennessee as well. Just where the finite details line up. The backing of the winds is impressive. I'd say somewhere in the deep south between Louisiana and Alabama your going to have. A very good tornado setup likely will shift some as we move forward but my guess is that it's Mississippi turn for this day 4 event. Just throwing this out there synoptically your best setup so far this January....
Your liable to see a very sizeable jump in parameters once you get into the cams. Saw it with the last event. This one could be a doozy. Probably a bit more west than your typical Dixie alley setups (Alabama/Mississippi) but the eastern extent will be inside of it.
Your liable to see a very sizeable jump in parameters once you get into the cams. Saw it with the last event. This one could be a doozy. Probably a bit more west than your typical Dixie alley setups (Alabama/Mississippi) but the eastern extent will be inside of it.
I think the Mississippi delta is setting up for a fairly good chase day for those who dare!
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Don't threaten me with a good time. The Delta in MS, AR, and LA is the best place to chase in Dixie Alley. Flattest land with least amount of trees and most visibility.
I'd go for it personally waiting on the 00z nam, I think this has potential for a eventual moderate risk by day 1. This lighting density is skewed instability will reach further north with more storms north in north Mississippi. Cams will show this when in range. But it's a very discreet storm mode when you start to reach into East Louisiana and Arkansas. Missippi should be the hotzone. Timing will of course play a role though in instability coverage but with dewpoint near 65 reach close to mid missippi/ north Mississippi instability will not be a issue more so just models not catching on.
@ashtonlemleywx if you miss this day 4 event no worries atleast 2 potential severe events coming down the pipeline to finish January. Just your typical springtime severe weather.. oops I meant winter. Good grief craziest weather patten I've seen in my lifetime 
JPWX
Member
Welcome to Apriluary (a combination month of April and January)