Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

[UK_EF4]

It doesn’t seem like the ceiling is as high as it once was….

I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).

If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.

I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.

 

[UK_EF4]

I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).

If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.

I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.

Completely my bad... just realised I posted this in the wrong thread haha! very sorry!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The solution the WRF and hrrr is showing for west missippi is pretty robust For spin ups. It's more isolated convection that the 3km nam.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@ashtonlemleywx I think you picked a good spot to chase I think near that west Mississippi area near the state line you'll have a good chance at some potentially tornadic storms. Wouldn't surprise me for a enhanced and a small 10% area near there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

My photo wont upload. But csu mlp tornado probs has a 15-30 % in south central Arkansas. Pretty interesting.

CSU-MLP Severe

schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Actually some of the newer data by the hrrr is alarming for Arkansas tommorow. Buckle up a mesoscale boom may be happening...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yes sir. We will see will be interesting tommorow to see how things play out, I think a 10% is warranted somewhere

 

[JBishopwx]

12:00 AM UPDATE:

 

[Austin Dawg]

12:00 AM UPDATE:

View attachment 16966

View attachment 16967

These are great for me to pass along to y relatives back in MS and AL

Thanks

 

[warneagle]

Shoutout to the tiny 2% area in Kansas

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[KevinH]

Strong tornadoes possible…. In a 5%?

Alright. LOL

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Strong tornadoes possible…. In a 5%?

Alright. LOL

Yup, the hrrr was on a mesoscale boom last night. Honestly surprised they didn't give a 10%.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Two tornado warnings now. I'd keep a close eye. One or two of these will probably be a strong one...

 

[KevinH]

Two tornado warnings now. I'd keep a close eye. One or two of these will probably be a strong one...

I would say the one that is isolated if I were to guess.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I would say the one that is isolated if I were to guess.

I actually think the ones further southwest of it closer to the line are the better parameters.

If one of these cells or the broken line itself can shift more towards a eastward motion it'd help in the tornado threat

 

[WxMan42711]

I actually think the ones further southwest of it closer to the line are the better parameters.

If one of these cells or the broken line itself can shift more towards a eastward motion it'd help in the tornado threat

storm north of nacogdoches, tx is starting to curl up, not to mention it has maintained a noticeable couplet for several scans now.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

storm north of nacogdoches, tx is starting to curl up, not to mention it has maintained a noticeable couplet for several scans now.

It will continue to enter a better environment. Those cells will be the ones to produce the stronger nados, I mentioned in the post to Kevin the ones southwest of the current isolated stuff in Arkansas will have a better chance. Instability on the rise ahead of it as well as shear.

 

[JBishopwx]

No changes at the 1630z SPC update.

 

[WxMan42711]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED JAN 18 2023

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SABINE AND LOWER
MS/OH VALLEYS...

..SUMMARY

A FEW TORNADOES AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SABINE VALLEY TO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

..SABINE AND LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS

MINIMAL CHANGE APPARENT FOR THIS OUTLOOK WITH A BROKEN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE EASTERN-MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE SABINE VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH WHERE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
(INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST) SUPPORTS MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHING
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT IN TX/LA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STP VALUES IN THE 1-2
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER. A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE, WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING SOME AS
THE BROKEN LINE CONSOLIDATES INTO A BROADER QLCS.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING WITH THE LONGEVITY OF AN APPRECIABLE
TORNADO AND WIND THREAT BEING MAINTAINED THIS EVENING. BULK OF
MORNING CAM AND MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT ON
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TOWARDS 00Z, DESPITE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PINCHED OFF IN THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN MS AFTER SUNSET. THIS SETUP APPEARS LIKELY TO YIELD A
DECREASING, BUT STILL A PERSISTENT LOW PROBABILITY WIND/BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT LINGERING TONIGHT.

..SOUTHEAST KS

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS KS, A SMALL CORRIDOR OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE, BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
RAINFALL, THERE MAY BE SCANT MLCAPE APPROACHING 250 J/KG. THIS COULD
BE BARELY ADEQUATE FOR A LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL WITH SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE.