• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

UK_EF4

Member
Messages
548
Reaction score
1,216
Location
NW London
It doesn’t seem like the ceiling is as high as it once was….
I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).

If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.

I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.
 

UK_EF4

Member
Messages
548
Reaction score
1,216
Location
NW London
I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).

If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.

I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.
Completely my bad... just realised I posted this in the wrong thread haha! very sorry! :D
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
100,000th Post
Messages
3,863
Reaction score
4,963
Location
Birmingham
@ashtonlemleywx I think you picked a good spot to chase I think near that west Mississippi area near the state line you'll have a good chance at some potentially tornadic storms. Wouldn't surprise me for a enhanced and a small 10% area near there. 2023011721_RAP_021_33.18,-90.81_severe_ml.png
 
Last edited:

UncleJuJu98

Member
100,000th Post
Messages
3,863
Reaction score
4,963
Location
Birmingham
Yes sir. We will see will be interesting tommorow to see how things play out, I think a 10% is warranted somewhere
 

cincywx

Member
Messages
390
Reaction score
679
Location
Cincinnati, OH
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I actually think the ones further southwest of it closer to the line are the better parameters.

If one of these cells or the broken line itself can shift more towards a eastward motion it'd help in the tornado threat

storm north of nacogdoches, tx is starting to curl up, not to mention it has maintained a noticeable couplet for several scans now.
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
100,000th Post
Messages
3,863
Reaction score
4,963
Location
Birmingham
storm north of nacogdoches, tx is starting to curl up, not to mention it has maintained a noticeable couplet for several scans now.
It will continue to enter a better environment. Those cells will be the ones to produce the stronger nados, I mentioned in the post to Kevin the ones southwest of the current isolated stuff in Arkansas will have a better chance. Instability on the rise ahead of it as well as shear.
 

cincywx

Member
Messages
390
Reaction score
679
Location
Cincinnati, OH
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED JAN 18 2023

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z


...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SABINE AND LOWER
MS/OH VALLEYS...

..SUMMARY


A FEW TORNADOES AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SABINE VALLEY TO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

..SABINE AND LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS


MINIMAL CHANGE APPARENT FOR THIS OUTLOOK WITH A BROKEN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE EASTERN-MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE SABINE VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH WHERE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
(INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST) SUPPORTS MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHING
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT IN TX/LA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STP VALUES IN THE 1-2
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER. A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE, WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING SOME AS
THE BROKEN LINE CONSOLIDATES INTO A BROADER QLCS.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING WITH THE LONGEVITY OF AN APPRECIABLE
TORNADO AND WIND THREAT BEING MAINTAINED THIS EVENING. BULK OF
MORNING CAM AND MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT ON
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TOWARDS 00Z, DESPITE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PINCHED OFF IN THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN MS AFTER SUNSET. THIS SETUP APPEARS LIKELY TO YIELD A
DECREASING, BUT STILL A PERSISTENT LOW PROBABILITY WIND/BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT LINGERING TONIGHT.

..SOUTHEAST KS


AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS KS, A SMALL CORRIDOR OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE, BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
RAINFALL, THERE MAY BE SCANT MLCAPE APPROACHING 250 J/KG. THIS COULD
BE BARELY ADEQUATE FOR A LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL WITH SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE.

spccoday1.categorical.latest.png
 
Logo 468x120
Back
Top