I'm just going to keep watch of the models for the next week lol, I feel like even though 0z and 06z GFS runs were less favourable it wouldn't take a slightly different trough ejection for the original signal to be returned to (perhaps hints of this in the 12z?).It doesn’t seem like the ceiling is as high as it once was….
If I recall correctly, Easter Outbreak 2020 initially appeared favourable, then looked less so on models before trending back up about 5 days before, and then becoming the 3rd largest 24 hour outbreak ever recorded... not trying to say we will see any sort of repeat of that though.
I think you are right that models are going in the preferred direction at the minute, but I wouldn't be too eager to dismiss things yet. Fingers crossed it trends away as the S US has been hit hard enough lately.