Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

[KevinH]

I feel like a lot of people's mindset has shifted from forecaster to observer since what happened in Alabama the other day.

I've gotten pretty good at nailing down what days severe weather will occur in a generalized area in the long range based on ingredients/patterns......but trying to predict the intensity, scale, and storm mode of a system on day 1 and day 2 in Dixie Alley is so damn difficult.

Yep… Dixie Alley is a pain in a forecaster’s money maker. Even more so (at sometimes) for a warning coordinator. So tough.

Sometimes you think you know what is likely to happen, and the it either changes at the last minute, or doesn’t happen.

OR, you may not know what happens (regardless of what forecast models, analogs say) until it happens.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z is just plain nasty. Btw the 21st; 7 days no issue with instability a lot of meteorologists won't be getting sleep for a few days. The 7 day out actually could turn into a good snow event for portions of the south if it goes more southeast. Crossing my fingers

 

[KevinH]

18z is just plain nasty. Btw the 21st; 7 days no issue with instability a lot of meteorologists won't be getting sleep for a few days.

Show us some GIFs (or pics)!

What do you mean about the 21st?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Show us some GIFs (or pics)!

What do you mean about the 21st?

Two possible robust weather events would be a long few days for meteorologists. Second low near the end the gif could be a snow producer for the south if it dug more southeast.

A *miller A* if you want to look it up generally your souths best chance at snow

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 16879
Two possible robust weather events would be a long few days for meteorologists. Second low near the end the gif could be a snow producer for the south if it dug more southeast

I swear central AL always has a target on its back SMH

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I swear central AL always has a target on its back SMH

Second system may impact your area typically does if it goes the snow route haha. It'll take a few days for models to really iron out the differences and see if it shifts more south east or northwest with it's ejection. It'll be a close call with temps though barely on freezing

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Trend of the surface low from the last 2 runs of the GFS, clear trend to a more southern ejection. Still rather far out almost at voodoo range as James spann would say. But your close to that 6-7 day range for the second event so I'll keep looking at it.

For example a 300 mile change northwest or southeast for the ejection means a a snow threat or a robust severe threat. OOF.

 

[KevinH]

Second system may impact your area typically does if it goes the snow route haha. It'll take a few days for models to really iron out the differences and see if it shifts more south east or northwest with its ejection. It'll be a close call with temps though barely on freezing

FWIW: I live in Columbus, GA, right on the AL/GA border.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Thought I would put this here...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

And this, a bit skeptical on some of it. But guidance is clear for next week on something happening.

 

[KevinH]

Thought I would put this here...

I wish I knew how to read the second graphic lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I wish I knew how to read the second graphic lol

It's basically the accuracy to the current forecast values based on current modeling. An 1 in any column means it matches up very well. To the analog value on that event day. So the closest the column is to a 1 the more similar event it is to this one which would pay close attention to. This event is about a 11/15 on the top 15 analogs so its decent but not the best

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I wish I knew how to read the second graphic lol

One thing I take of note based off current modeling and and the cips is the dew points. What I was saying before instability and mositure don't add up. To what's forecast and values on those top 15 analogs. With almost all of them at about 50% off on accuracy.

 

[KevinH]

It's basically the accuracy to the current forecast values based on current modeling. An 1 in any column means it matches up very well. To the analog value on that event day. So the closest the column is to a 1 the more similar event it is to this one which would pay close attention to. This event is about a 11/15 on the top 15 analogs so its decent but not the best

Oh

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh

Actually dewpoint accuracy is about 6.0-7.0 thought they were all around 5 lol didnt look at it good

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not buying the below 500cape that the 12z euro and the low cape the 18z GFS forecast. With around a 65 dewpoint into central Alabama. It doesn't add up. Can't wait for this system to get on shore in the next day or two in California to give some better data. Just doesn't add up, maybe modeling is overdoing the atmosphere thinking it's worked over..? 65 dewpoints can support a good chunk of instabiliy. Just not buying it until I see the Nam say otherwise when it gets in range. This isn't the 1st rodeo.

 

[KevinH]

Not buying the below 500cape that the 12z euro and the low cape the 18z GFS forecast. With around a 65 dewpoint into central Alabama. It doesn't add up. Can't wait for this system to get on shore in the next day or two in California to give some better data. Just doesn't add up, maybe modeling is overdoing the atmosphere thinking it's worked over..? 65 dewpoints can support a good chunk of instabiliy. Just not buying it until I see the Nam say otherwise when it gets in range. This isn't the 1st rodeo.

We know better.

Hey Dixie: you ain’t slick lol

Fool me once….. ha ha ha

 

[JPWX]

SPC seems to be on the fence still about how widespread and potent next week's threat will be.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC seems to be on the fence still about how widespread and potent next week's threat will be.

They also leaning more of a damage wind threat .

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m not really seeing a higher end threat with any these troughs coming next week… as cheeseland mentioned . Not enough time between systems to build quality deep moisture which will hurt instability …