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- #61
KevinH
Member
Yep… Dixie Alley is a pain in a forecaster’s money maker. Even more so (at sometimes) for a warning coordinator. So tough.I feel like a lot of people's mindset has shifted from forecaster to observer since what happened in Alabama the other day.
I've gotten pretty good at nailing down what days severe weather will occur in a generalized area in the long range based on ingredients/patterns......but trying to predict the intensity, scale, and storm mode of a system on day 1 and day 2 in Dixie Alley is so damn difficult.
Sometimes you think you know what is likely to happen, and the it either changes at the last minute, or doesn’t happen.
OR, you may not know what happens (regardless of what forecast models, analogs say) until it happens.