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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

ashtonlemleywx said:
I feel like a lot of people's mindset has shifted from forecaster to observer since what happened in Alabama the other day.

I've gotten pretty good at nailing down what days severe weather will occur in a generalized area in the long range based on ingredients/patterns......but trying to predict the intensity, scale, and storm mode of a system on day 1 and day 2 in Dixie Alley is so damn difficult.
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Yep… Dixie Alley is a pain in a forecaster’s money maker. Even more so (at sometimes) for a warning coordinator. So tough.

Sometimes you think you know what is likely to happen, and the it either changes at the last minute, or doesn’t happen.

OR, you may not know what happens (regardless of what forecast models, analogs say) until it happens.
 
18z is just plain nasty. Btw the 21st; 7 days no issue with instability a lot of meteorologists won't be getting sleep for a few days. The 7 day out actually could turn into a good snow event for portions of the south if it goes more southeast. Crossing my fingers
 
Trend of the surface low from the last 2 runs of the GFS, clear trend to a more southern ejection. Still rather far out almost at voodoo range as James spann would say. But your close to that 6-7 day range for the second event so I'll keep looking at it.

For example a 300 mile change northwest or southeast for the ejection means a a snow threat or a robust severe threat. OOF.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186_trend (2).gif
 
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KevinH said:
I wish I knew how to read the second graphic lol
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It's basically the accuracy to the current forecast values based on current modeling. An 1 in any column means it matches up very well. To the analog value on that event day. So the closest the column is to a 1 the more similar event it is to this one which would pay close attention to. This event is about a 11/15 on the top 15 analogs so its decent but not the best
 
KevinH said:
I wish I knew how to read the second graphic lol
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One thing I take of note based off current modeling and and the cips is the dew points. What I was saying before instability and mositure don't add up. To what's forecast and values on those top 15 analogs. With almost all of them at about 50% off on accuracy.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
It's basically the accuracy to the current forecast values based on current modeling. An 1 in any column means it matches up very well. To the analog value on that event day. So the closest the column is to a 1 the more similar event it is to this one which would pay close attention to. This event is about a 11/15 on the top 15 analogs so its decent but not the best
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Oh
 
Not buying the below 500cape that the 12z euro and the low cape the 18z GFS forecast. With around a 65 dewpoint into central Alabama. It doesn't add up. Can't wait for this system to get on shore in the next day or two in California to give some better data. Just doesn't add up, maybe modeling is overdoing the atmosphere thinking it's worked over..? 65 dewpoints can support a good chunk of instabiliy. Just not buying it until I see the Nam say otherwise when it gets in range. This isn't the 1st rodeo.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Not buying the below 500cape that the 12z euro and the low cape the 18z GFS forecast. With around a 65 dewpoint into central Alabama. It doesn't add up. Can't wait for this system to get on shore in the next day or two in California to give some better data. Just doesn't add up, maybe modeling is overdoing the atmosphere thinking it's worked over..? 65 dewpoints can support a good chunk of instabiliy. Just not buying it until I see the Nam say otherwise when it gets in range. This isn't the 1st rodeo.
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We know better.

Hey Dixie: you ain’t slick lol

Fool me once….. ha ha ha
 
SPC seems to be on the fence still about how widespread and potent next week's threat will be.
 
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