Just look... 1st surface low dewpoints on the 17th and then dewpoints with the second low on the 19th. Very dangerous for January when the main thing you usually lack is instability in your typical winter shear driven events. 
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
15%/Slight for Wednesday
Unbelievable GFS showing 4 troughs making there way in through the southeast in the next 8 days. One heck of a active time period.
- Thread starter
- #44
KevinH
Member
That figures…. I see 2023 woke up and chose violence to start the year.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Could be a case of too active for its own good in terms of producing severe weather, if the airmass doesn't have time to modify/remoisten between fronts. However as we saw two days ago, it doesn't always take as much as you might think this time of year. I tend to think in terms of a Wisconsinite where our severe threats can have moisture issues even well into the late spring. It's why I have a hard time biting on early setups like Winterset last year.
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Agree, but the thing that's different this go around is we dont have definite cold front that makes it all the way through the south. The atmosphere recovers pretty quickly just this last event supercells formed with damaging wind in northeast Alabama after just that mid morning storms went through.
Forcing may be a issue though to get a well defined storm threat.
To my previous post before, it's worrisome at the possibility of a primer low that gets the atmosphere filled with a lot of moisture. Some of the lows may not work the atmosphere leaving it primed for something else to come through with a even better setup.
Lol and Wisconsin and Alabama have different distances between them and the Gulf, doesn't take much for unstable air to be pulled into Alabama compared to the trek up into Wisconsin. One thing a lot of people have a hard time understanding is some of the different climatology of setups of severe events between the midwest / Carolinas / deep south/ and plains. All similar, but for example a plains outbreak would never happen in the deep south. Sometimes why I value veteran storm watchers that live in the deep south more than newbie meteorologists because they know the patterns and sometimes can be more right than the meteorologists.
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Clancy
Member
CIPS showing signal for severe over the SE valid evening of January 19.
- Thread starter
- #48
KevinH
Member
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- #49
KevinH
Member
Should also be noted this contour is for SVR probs, not TOR probs.
Although I am curious to see the contours for TOR/WIND prob for the same hour.
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- Thread starter
- #50
KevinH
Member
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- #51
KevinH
Member
That 15% appears to be wind-driven (at this time). I am having trouble posting the graphic though
Kindve suspicious of the overall threat area and threat risks right now, seems as if it's going off the basis of the low instability profiles on the globals.
The overall instability forecasts by the GFS atleast is suspicious.
Eh the forecast hodographs say otherwise, id throw those cips analog runs out the window right now. A lot of inconsistencies and things. That dont add up right now. My photo wont upload right now for some reason.
Well at least they say otherwise in terms of spins up, I should correct myself lol. GFS shows a squall line.
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- Thread starter
- #54
KevinH
Member
This far out I am taking everything with a grain of salt lol
As we saw with this last event, things did not escalate quickly seemingly until the last minute.
Dixie Alley is something else man… SMH
Very true, mesoscale details are not to be scoffed at lol.
- Thread starter
- #56
KevinH
Member
I do just northeast of it in Jefferson county.
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- #58
KevinH
Member
Hot zone. lol
- Thread starter
- #59
KevinH
Member
Saw this on Twitter and it caught my attention:
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I feel like a lot of people's mindset has shifted from forecaster to observer since what happened in Alabama the other day.
I've gotten pretty good at nailing down what days severe weather will occur in a generalized area in the long range based on ingredients/patterns......but trying to predict the intensity, scale, and storm mode of a system on day 1 and day 2 in Dixie Alley is so damn difficult.
I've gotten pretty good at nailing down what days severe weather will occur in a generalized area in the long range based on ingredients/patterns......but trying to predict the intensity, scale, and storm mode of a system on day 1 and day 2 in Dixie Alley is so damn difficult.
