ashtonlemleywx
Member
SPC is always on the fence about something. Last week was on the fence about instability and we see how that turned out.
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The 19th systems storm mode will depend on how tight the low is. Wind profiles support more of a discreet storms mode than linear on the 19th. But unless those winds back which is kindve hard with a huge "untight" low pressure over Arkansas it'll stay a damaging wind threat. But we will see lot of time for it to change.They also leaning more of a damage wind threat .
Yeah last Thursday's threat was only suppose to be a damaging wind threat with only a few isolated tornadoes. Now, I'm not criticizing SPC or anyone, but you have to look at every aspect other than instability. We know here in Dixie Alley that you can have big outbreaks with less than 1000 CAPE and strong wind shear. Not keep saying lack of instability will be the main limiting factor for a more robust threat.SPC is always on the fence about something. Last week was on the fence about instability and we see how that turned out.
Pics? GIFs?If 18z NAM is to be believed... we could be looking at a more substantial threat on Wednesday.
If 18z NAM is to be believed... we could be looking at a more substantial threat on Wednesday.
For the cold core setup in the Midwest or the southeast one?If 18z NAM is to be believed... we could be looking at a more substantial threat on Wednesday.
Robust sounding, storms will be flirting with being rooted at the surface and elevated though atleast with this sounding limiting tornado threat.
Don't threaten me with a good time. The Delta in MS, AR, and LA is the best place to chase in Dixie Alley. Flattest land with least amount of trees and most visibility.I think the Mississippi delta is setting up for a fairly good chase day for those who dare!
I'd go for it personally waiting on the 00z nam, I think this has potential for a eventual moderate risk by day 1. This lighting density is skewed instability will reach further north with more storms north in north Mississippi. Cams will show this when in range. But it's a very discreet storm mode when you start to reach into East Louisiana and Arkansas. Missippi should be the hotzone. Timing will of course play a role though in instability coverage but with dewpoint near 65 reach close to mid missippi/ north Mississippi instability will not be a issue more so just models not catching on.Don't threaten me with a good time. The Delta in MS, AR, and LA is the best place to chase in Dixie Alley. Flattest land with least amount of trees and most visibility.
Welcome to Apriluary (a combination month of April and January)@ashtonlemleywx if you miss this day 4 event no worries atleast 2 potential severe events coming down the pipeline to finish January. Just your typical springtime severe weather.. oops I meant winter. Good grief craziest weather patten I've seen in my lifetime View attachment 16909View attachment 16910