Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

[TornadoFan]

Mansfield, LA storm is ramping up.

 

[cincywx]

Mansfield, LA storm is ramping up.

more than likely very strong winds went thru mansfield if not a brief tornado

 

[TH2002]

Storm chaser reports mobile homes destroyed northwest of Keachi.

 

[Tanner]

Geez what happened? Nothing looking healthy atm. Was expecting a much longer duration event.

Surface obs appear to show meager low level instability, similar to what hindered 11/29. But I think this event is far from over…


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[buckeye05]

Well unless things ramp up soon, most of the threat area may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency big time.

 

[buckeye05]

Not even a single severe thunderstorm warning now. Yeah I think we’re done here.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Honestly I had a gut feeling that today was going to be an underperformer. It reminded me of a few of the Atmospheric Anti-Climax events from December 2018.

 

[buckeye05]

If some of these discrete cells can establish strong mesos, I may have to eat my words yet again. Nothing immediately concerning yet, but we shall see.

We got this, but velocity is not impressive

 

[TH2002]

I'm thinking the DeRidder cell may be the one to watch.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TH2002]

Things appearing tame at the moment. As with the last event, it appears the uncapped environment is allowing storms to form in rapid succession and cluster together.

 

[buckeye05]

I’d wager something is missing kinematics wise too based on the lack of supercell structures or sustained rotation.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

From MD 2022...

While so far organization within the warm advection confluence bands
farther east has been limited, stronger forcing for ascent is
expected to arrive from the west in the next couple of hours beneath
a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Recent HRRR runs suggest additional warm
sector development/intensification is possible across mainly the
eastern half of WW583 this evening. With strong shear and sufficient
buoyancy forecast to persist after dark, the risk for supercells and
a few tornadoes is expected to continue.

..Lyons.. 12/14/2022

Enhanced risk maintained at 01Z specifically for tornadoes...30% wind area dropped.

Although mid/upper flow will remain at least broadly difluent across
the lower Mississippi Valley region overnight, the lack of more
substantive mid/upper support appears likely to remain a limiting
factor with regard to potential for more widespread severe weather.
The primary upstream short wave, within the broader-scale cyclonic
flow surrounding the middle Mississippi Valley cyclone, is still
digging across Arizona and only forecast to reach the Texas South
Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity after turning eastward later tonight.

..Kerr.. 12/14/2022

 

[buckeye05]

Potential embedded QLCS circulation near Spearsville, LA but it’s pretty far from the radar. No warning.

Edit: Warned now

 

[buckeye05]

Strong circulation near Strong, AR

 

[buckeye05]

Despite how read it looked earlier, we be may about to see round 2 of tornado activity

 

[buckeye05]

Another one east of Zwolle, LA

 

[buckeye05]

Third one now!

 

[TH2002]

The cell headed for Pollock is the one I first noted near DeRidder. Was interesting to watch it pass directly over the Fort Polk radar site and now it looks like the LLJ might finally be kicking in.

 

[buckeye05]

Tornado with CC drop clipping the north edge of Farmerville, LA