TornadoFan
Member
Mansfield, LA storm is ramping up.
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Geez what happened? Nothing looking healthy atm. Was expecting a much longer duration event.
While so far organization within the warm advection confluence bands
farther east has been limited, stronger forcing for ascent is
expected to arrive from the west in the next couple of hours beneath
a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Recent HRRR runs suggest additional warm
sector development/intensification is possible across mainly the
eastern half of WW583 this evening. With strong shear and sufficient
buoyancy forecast to persist after dark, the risk for supercells and
a few tornadoes is expected to continue.
..Lyons.. 12/14/2022
Although mid/upper flow will remain at least broadly difluent across
the lower Mississippi Valley region overnight, the lack of more
substantive mid/upper support appears likely to remain a limiting
factor with regard to potential for more widespread severe weather.
The primary upstream short wave, within the broader-scale cyclonic
flow surrounding the middle Mississippi Valley cyclone, is still
digging across Arizona and only forecast to reach the Texas South
Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity after turning eastward later tonight.
..Kerr.. 12/14/2022