Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

[CheeselandSkies]

I think the signal is strong enough at this range to start a thread. However with model variability it's tough to say whether there will be a significant threat the first two of these days, the latter two or all three; or which day(s) if any would feature the greatest threat of a higher-end outbreak and exactly where that would be.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS is coming in...system is definitely evolving slower compared to previous runs. What looked like a setup for Monday the 12th two days ago now takes place on Tuesday. Still might be some degree of threat Monday evening, primarily around the Red River region of TX/OK.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Timhsv]

 

[Weatherphreak]

Brad Travis starting to raise awareness in North Alabama for Wednesday AM. Selfishly I hope this system slows down and comes in later Wednesday for North Alabama even if that meant a little more instability.

 

[KevinH]

Brad Travis starting to raise awareness in North Alabama for Wednesday AM. Selfishly I hope this system slows down and comes in later Wednesday for North Alabama even if that meant a little more instability.

Already?!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Noticing on the GFS an upward trend on the severe weather potential on Wednesday for the same areas impacted with last week's system.

 

[Edith]

Pretty strong wording out from the SPC this morning. This looks like a multi-day tornado outbreak over a large area!

 

[Edith]

 

[Edith]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

View attachment 15879

Holy shart!

 

[Clancy]

30% for D6.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

30% for D6.

Don’t see 30 percent on a day 6 threat hardly ever, anyone know last one we had?

 

[Clancy]

Don’t see 30 percent on a day 6 threat hardly ever, anyone know last one we had?

Has happened only a handful of times I think, according to this post only 5 times since 2015. Can't remember the most recent one though.

 

[Clancy]

Has happened only a handful of times I think, according to this post only 5 times since 2015. Can't remember the most recent one though.

Ah, here's a list of those other dates. All were springtime events in April, apparently.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Noticing on the GFS an upward trend on the severe weather potential on Wednesday for the same areas impacted with last week's system.

The threat was through these areas Tuesday on the EURO and Canada model.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Ah, here's a list of those other dates. All were springtime events in April, apparently.

4/9/15 produced the Rochelle/Fairdale, IL EF4. 4/28/17 didn't produce much but was the day before the two Canton, TX area killer tornadoes (EF3 and EF4). No tornadoes were confirmed on April 30th, 2018. April 26th, 2016 was hyped as a potential big outbreak day and there was widespread severe weather, but issues with storm coverage and veer-back-veer hampered a significant supercell tornado outbreak.

 

[Clancy]

4/9/15 produced the Rochelle/Fairdale, IL EF4. 4/28/17 didn't produce much but was the day before the two Canton, TX area killer tornadoes (EF3 and EF4). No tornadoes were confirmed on April 30th, 2018. April 26th, 2016 was hyped as a potential big outbreak day and there was widespread severe weather, but issues with storm coverage and veer-back-veer hampered a significant supercell tornado outbreak.

Of course, it's worth reiterating that the way the SPC delineates these areas has changed over time so it's not entirely advisable to take these dates at face value without that in mind, but it being the first such day in December is notable for sure.

 

[JPWX]

While there was no 30% Day 6 outlook in April 2018, the last one was for April 28th, 2014. He was right on the other 3 for April though.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

While there was no 30% Day 6 outlook in April 2018, the last one was for April 28th, 2014.

That was the date of Tupelo, Lincoln and Louisville - the last one of which was likely an EF5. If this event ends up being anywhere close to that date's intensity.....