TornadoFan
Member
Grapevine? Looks all clear out that way.
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Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
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Latest MD mentions that a PDS watch is being considered for the east central TX/northwestern LA corridor.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2015
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
- Thread starter
- #84
CheeselandSkies
Member
If they do go with it, it would be an extremely rare occasion that a PDS watch goes out with the categorical outlook at less than 15% hatched/moderate risk.
I remember one time back in 2003 or so they had a 5% tornado area with a hatched area (which is mathematically impossible - you can't have a 10% or greater probability of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a point if your probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point is less than 10% - but this was before the 10% contour existed) and put out a PDS watch for it. I think it was in the Texas Panhandle in early June. Nothing much of note happened with it.
OHWX97
Member
A possible tornado is moving direclty into Rusk, TX. Another cell to its north, near Longview, also looks pretty concerning.
OHWX97
Member
Tornado warned storm north of Pineland, TX has a nice BWER.
WhirlingWx
Member
Hey, could you show a screenshot, if you have one, of the CC drop you mentioned? Had my final interrupted because of this tornado warning, I wasn't aware of any more action in DFW following the Grapevine tornado. Thanks. Was a really stressful morning tracking everything as it came towards me, only to not know what was going on when we actually were told to shelter.
I'm home now, so safe to say I will be making the Very Responsible Decision of tracking the weather instead of studying... /s
WhirlingWx
Member
20z Update maintains Enhanced:
Primary change with this update was to trim severe probabilities
behind an ongoing broken line of convection extending from parts of
east TX into western AR. The potential for a few strong tornadoes
remains evident this afternoon and evening from portions of east TX
into LA. A very impressive kinematic profile exists based on recent
VWPs from KSHV, with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2. Any supercell that
can be sustained in this strongly sheared environment will be
capable of producing a tornado. The main uncertainty continues to be
whether sufficient instability will exist with eastward extent
across northern/central LA this evening to support a substantial
tornado threat. Convective mode and evolution also remain somewhat
uncertain, but deep-layer shear is clearly strong enough for
supercells. The threat for tornadoes, some of which could be strong,
will likely continue this evening into the overnight hours into MS
and southeastern LA, as low-level shear should remain quite strong
in association with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet.
Primary change with this update was to trim severe probabilities
behind an ongoing broken line of convection extending from parts of
east TX into western AR. The potential for a few strong tornadoes
remains evident this afternoon and evening from portions of east TX
into LA. A very impressive kinematic profile exists based on recent
VWPs from KSHV, with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2. Any supercell that
can be sustained in this strongly sheared environment will be
capable of producing a tornado. The main uncertainty continues to be
whether sufficient instability will exist with eastward extent
across northern/central LA this evening to support a substantial
tornado threat. Convective mode and evolution also remain somewhat
uncertain, but deep-layer shear is clearly strong enough for
supercells. The threat for tornadoes, some of which could be strong,
will likely continue this evening into the overnight hours into MS
and southeastern LA, as low-level shear should remain quite strong
in association with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet.
TornadoFan
Member
No PDS watch.
cincywx
Member
80/60 probs
Last edited:
TornadoFan
Member
SHV sounding.
Weatherphreak
Member
I’ve got 3 chasers streaming on YouTube right now but no dice so far. Reed was on a good looking lowering but his signal has been on and off. I’ve started streaming Ryan Hall on these events. He’ll usually have a couple chasers that he’s watching
JPWX
Member
I've always wondered. Could SPC issue a tornado watch then upgrade it to PDS if necessary? I don't know if that has happened before or if they could do that.
TornadoFan
Member
HRRR sounding just sw of Shreveport.
cincywx
Member
i believe they have reissued a tor watch for select counties already under a watch in the past (and i may be mistaken but i swear i remember it occurring a couple of weeks ago) in place of an existing one long before its expiration time, so im sure its possible.
KevinH
Member
Ive never known them to do that, I suppose they COULD though. I would have to imagine that ingredients would have to take a DRASTIC unexpected turn for them to do that
But…. Idk
TornadoFan
Member
Strong rotation north of Mount Enterprise, TX.
TornadoFan
Member
Mount Enterprise storm looks pretty healthy.
