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Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

Tennie said:
Got a pretty strong-looking area of rotation near Grapevine. TX. Unfortunately, the nearest radar site (KSHV) is over 90 nautical miles to the NE, making it extra-hard to tell from radar alone what's actually going on down there.
Click to expand...
Grapevine? Looks all clear out that way.
 
Latest MD mentions that a PDS watch is being considered for the east central TX/northwestern LA corridor.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2015

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
TH2002 said:
Latest MD mentions that a PDS watch is being considered for the east central TX/northwestern LA corridor.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2015

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...

If they do go with it, it would be an extremely rare occasion that a PDS watch goes out with the categorical outlook at less than 15% hatched/moderate risk.

I remember one time back in 2003 or so they had a 5% tornado area with a hatched area (which is mathematically impossible - you can't have a 10% or greater probability of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a point if your probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point is less than 10% - but this was before the 10% contour existed) and put out a PDS watch for it. I think it was in the Texas Panhandle in early June. Nothing much of note happened with it.
 
Tornado warning for Lakeport, TX:

413
WFUS54 KSHV 131954
TORSHV
TXC183-203-132045-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0084.221213T1954Z-221213T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
154 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Harrison County in northeastern Texas...
South central Gregg County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 245 PM CST.

* At 153 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Kilgore, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Longview, Kilgore, Hallsville, Harleton, Lakeport, Nesbitt and
Rolling Meadows.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 9454 3257 9439 3237 9468 3237 9482
3242 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 228DEG 42KT 3241 9477

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

19
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Tornado warned storm north of Pineland, TX has a nice BWER.
pineland_50.png
 
buckeye05 said:
This potential outbreak is already off to a nasty start. There was a CC drop in the Allen/Fairview, TX area not too long ago too.
Twitter showing considerable damage to businesses in Grapevine, and heavy damage to homes in Decatur right now.
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Hey, could you show a screenshot, if you have one, of the CC drop you mentioned? Had my final interrupted because of this tornado warning, I wasn't aware of any more action in DFW following the Grapevine tornado. Thanks. Was a really stressful morning tracking everything as it came towards me, only to not know what was going on when we actually were told to shelter.

I'm home now, so safe to say I will be making the Very Responsible Decision of tracking the weather instead of studying... /s
 
20z Update maintains Enhanced:

Primary change with this update was to trim severe probabilities
behind an ongoing broken line of convection extending from parts of
east TX into western AR. The potential for a few strong tornadoes
remains evident this afternoon and evening from portions of east TX
into LA. A very impressive kinematic profile exists based on recent
VWPs from KSHV, with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2. Any supercell that
can be sustained in this strongly sheared environment will be
capable of producing a tornado. The main uncertainty continues to be
whether sufficient instability will exist with eastward extent
across northern/central LA this evening to support a substantial
tornado threat. Convective mode and evolution also remain somewhat
uncertain, but deep-layer shear is clearly strong enough for
supercells. The threat for tornadoes, some of which could be strong,
will likely continue this evening into the overnight hours into MS
and southeastern LA, as low-level shear should remain quite strong
in association with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet.
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2022

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THEY TRACK INTO PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. TORNADOES, INCLUDING A RISK OF
STRONG TORNADOES, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
Click to expand...

80/60 probs

ww0583_radar.gif
 
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I’ve got 3 chasers streaming on YouTube right now but no dice so far. Reed was on a good looking lowering but his signal has been on and off. I’ve started streaming Ryan Hall on these events. He’ll usually have a couple chasers that he’s watching
 
I've always wondered. Could SPC issue a tornado watch then upgrade it to PDS if necessary? I don't know if that has happened before or if they could do that.
 
JPWX said:
I've always wondered. Could SPC issue a tornado watch then upgrade it to PDS if necessary? I don't know if that has happened before or if they could do that.
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i believe they have reissued a tor watch for select counties already under a watch in the past (and i may be mistaken but i swear i remember it occurring a couple of weeks ago) in place of an existing one long before its expiration time, so im sure its possible.
 
JPWX said:
I've always wondered. Could SPC issue a tornado watch then upgrade it to PDS if necessary? I don't know if that has happened before or if they could do that.
Click to expand...
Ive never known them to do that, I suppose they COULD though. I would have to imagine that ingredients would have to take a DRASTIC unexpected turn for them to do that

But…. Idk
 
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