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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

wx_guy said:
Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.
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Yeah, though moisture was a question I had this morning, it wasn't the main question mark. Real-time convective evolution will be key, and exactly how that pans out is anyone's guess for now.
 
I'm not well-versed on the physics involved in splitting of supercells (so the mets on here might want to weigh in), but this is what AI spit out for me when I ask it just now, out of curiosity:

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Left-splitting supercells are a less common but important type of supercell thunderstorm. Several factors contribute to their formation:
  1. Straight Hodograph: Supercells typically form in environments with curved hodographs (a plot showing wind speed and direction with height). Straight hodographs are more favorable for splitting storms, as they create an environment where both cyclonic (counterclockwise) and anticyclonic (clockwise) rotation can develop and propagate equally.
  2. Crosswise Vorticity: This refers to the amount of horizontal rotation perpendicular to the storm's movement.Higher amounts of crosswise vorticity, often associated with straight hodographs, promote storm splitting.
  3. Dynamic Processes within the Storm: As a supercell evolves, complex interactions between updrafts (rising air) and downdrafts (sinking air) can cause the main updraft to split into two separate updrafts, each with its own rotation. This can lead to the storm splitting into two distinct cells, one moving left and the other moving right of the mean wind.
In Summary: Left-splitting supercells occur when a combination of environmental factors (like straight hodographs and crosswise vorticity) and internal storm dynamics cause the main updraft to split and form two separate rotating cells.
Additional Resources:
I hope this explanation is helpful! Let me know if you have any other questions.

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So maybe that helps?
 
jiharris0220 said:
Well, to reel this thread back on track. Cumulus field stretching from south TX to the panhandle with thunderstorms already developing near the dry line.

Waaay earlier than the hrrr had them initiate, this definitely well throw even more wrenches in the forecast.
View attachment 27760
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Yes, HRRR didn't have them initiating until around 22z, so this is a good 3-4 hours ahead of schedule. Wonder how that will affect things.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Well, to reel this thread back on track. Cumulus field stretching from south TX to the panhandle with thunderstorms already developing near the dry line.

Waaay earlier than the hrrr had them initiate, this definitely well throw even more wrenches in the forecast.
View attachment 27760
Click to expand...
Is the storms developing early potentially good or bad for tornado development? Or is this really up in the air at the moment as to what effect it'll have on everything?
 
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